The Big 12 race has narrowed fast, and Oklahoma State sits right in the middle of it.
With five conference contenders still standing, the Cowboys are one of four teams sitting at 3-1 in league play, behind only unbeaten Utah. Arizona, BYU, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are all chasing the same thing now: a ticket to the Dec. 4 Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, a Friday night kickoff on ABC.
For OSU, the good news is the path is there - and it looks cleaner than most.
The Cowboys are 5-2 overall and have the easiest remaining schedule of the five teams still in the hunt. Their final five games are at Iowa State, at Kansas State, against Texas Tech, at Arizona State and against Kansas.
The combined Big 12 record of those opponents is 8-12, and the Cowboys only have one matchup left against the Utah-Arizona-BYU-Texas Tech cluster: Texas Tech. The other three road games come against teams that are a combined 4-8 in conference play, which is why OSU projects as the favorite in all three.
The Nov. 14 meeting with Texas Tech is the hinge point. Eric Morris faces his alma mater, and the Cowboys would still likely be slight favorites at home. Even if OSU is favored in every remaining game, the price is still attractive if the Cowboys run the table.
One straightforward route stands out: Oklahoma State wins out, and Utah wins out. That would lock in an OSU-Utah matchup for the Big 12 championship.
That’s the kind of turnaround that has changed the conversation around Morris, who inherited a program that went 0-18 in Big 12 play over the previous two seasons.
Arizona is right there in the mix at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the league, but the Wildcats face a much steeper climb. Their remaining schedule includes a trip to Texas Tech, home games against TCU, Utah and Arizona State, and road dates at Kansas State and Texas Tech. The Wildcats’ opponents have a combined Big 12 record of 11-9, and the next one is the toughest: a Saturday morning kickoff at Texas Tech.
That one might not be an elimination game, but it could turn into one. If Arizona gets through Lubbock, the Nov. 14 home matchup with Utah becomes enormous.
Brent Brennan’s team has already stacked three straight conference wins after its Week 2 loss at BYU, beating Cincinnati, West Virginia and Iowa State. Arizona also ranks in the Big 12’s top five in both total offense and total defense.
BYU has its own heavyweight path. The Cougars are 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big 12, with five games left: Arizona State, at Utah, Baylor, at Kansas and Cincinnati. Their remaining opponents also carry an 11-9 combined conference record.
The Cougars should be favored in three home games - against Arizona State, Baylor and Cincinnati - and should also have a good shot at Kansas on the road. But the game that shapes everything is Nov. 7 at Utah. That Holy War may be the biggest game on the conference calendar.
BYU is still in the thick of the race despite last week’s loss at UCF, a result that came after a win over Notre Dame. The Cougars still have some real momentum in the conference, where they are 18-4 over their last 22 Big 12 games.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, is 6-1 overall and 3-1 in league play, with Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU left on the schedule. The Red Raiders’ remaining opponents have a combined Big 12 record of 11-10.
Their immediate challenge is a Saturday game at home against Arizona, where they are touchdown favorites. After that comes the trip to Stillwater, and that one could carry a lot of weight in the standings. FanDuel has Texas Tech’s title odds slightly better than Oklahoma State’s, though the Cowboys’ schedule looks more manageable.
Then there’s Utah, still unbeaten at 7-0 and 4-0 in the Big 12. The Utes have five games left - at Cincinnati, against BYU, at Arizona, at TCU and against West Virginia - and their opponents are 11-10 combined in conference play.
Utah’s road ahead is not soft. The Utes are only a touchdown favorite at Cincinnati, and the next two games after that are the Holy War and a trip to Tucson.
Still, Utah controls its own fate, and Morgan Scalley has guided the team well since taking over for Kyle Whittingham. By most measures, the Utes look like the most complete team in the league.
As it stands, Utah, UCLA and Miami are the last three undefeated teams in the country, and Utah remains in full command of its own path to Arlington and beyond.
In Other News...
Oklahoma State Suddenly Has A Tough Iowa State Decision To Make
Oklahoma States first player availability report for the Iowa State game offered an early look at how thin the margin can get late in the season. Tight end Carson Kolb will miss the matchup after suffering a left foot injury against Colorado, while safety Quinton Hammonds, wide receiver Dayvon Standard and defensive tackle Landon Dean are listed as questionable. Cornerback Beni Ngoyi, defensive end Caden Crawford and defensive tackle Ka'Mori Moore are already ruled out, giving the Cowboys a short list of healthy options at several spots.
That leaves Eric Morris and his staff sorting through the tight end depth chart with more urgency than they likely wanted heading into a game that already carries plenty of weight. Morris addressed the injury situation and said lineup changes are on the table at tight end, where Oklahoma State will need to piece together a plan without Kolb and manage the ripple effects elsewhere on offense. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma State's Defensive Rebuild Is Starting To Turn Heads In Recruiting
Oklahoma States defensive rebuild is starting to pick up real momentum on the recruiting trail, and the latest additions suggest the staff is getting traction beyond just plugging needs. Cornerback Jlynnd Kellow, a three-star prospect from Willis High School in Texas, and linebacker Bryson Brown of Stillwater, Oklahoma, both joined the class after backing away from prior commitments, giving the Cowboys a pair of defensive pledges with some local and regional appeal.
For a program trying to show progress under new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, those kinds of flips matter because they signal confidence in what the staff is selling. Kellow had been headed to Mississippi State, while Brown had been committed to Baylor, and Oklahoma States ability to pull both into the fold gives the defensive class a little more weight as the rebuild continues to take shape. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma State's Recruiting Surge Just Picked Up Another Intriguing Sign
Bryson Browns decision gives Oklahoma State another notable win on the recruiting trail, and it comes with a bit of local flavor. The linebacker from Stillwater had been on Baylors commitment list before ending up with the Cowboys, a move that adds to the sense that Oklahoma States momentum under Eric Morris is starting to show up beyond the field.
Brown is the second defensive player to commit to Oklahoma State in recent days, giving the Cowboys a noticeable lift on that side of the ball. The timing matters, too, with Baylor moving on from Dave Aranda and Oklahoma States strong start under its new coach helping create a more appealing picture for recruits who are looking at stability, opportunity and a program on the rise. [Read more 🡒]