STILLWATER - Oklahoma State’s loss at Tulsa keeps looking stranger every week, especially with the Cowboys stacking wins and the Golden Hurricane sliding into a three-game losing streak. Tre Lamb is now 2-0 against OSU and 1-9 in the American, but that September stumble may not matter much anymore.
Not for the Big 12 race. And maybe not for the College Football Playoff picture, either.
Oklahoma State’s route is simple on paper: get to the Big 12 title game and win it. That can happen by running the table or by surviving a conference loss or two and still reaching Arlington. If the Cowboys can do that, the playoff door opens.
The schedule ahead gives them a real shot. Houston looms at 6:30 p.m.
Saturday, and Texas Tech visits Stillwater on Nov. 14.
OSU is a slight underdog against the Cougars, but a win would leave the Cowboys in strong position the rest of the way. They’ve already pulled off wins as underdogs against Oregon and at West Virginia, and if they take care of Houston, they might be favored in every remaining game, including against Texas Tech.
“It’s not just one super team that’s beating everyone,” said junior defensive tackle Braylon Rigsby, one of two Texas Tech transfers - cornerback Mo Horn is the other - on OSU’s roster.
The rest of the conference slate looks manageable on paper: Colorado, at Iowa State, at Kansas State, at Arizona State and Kansas. Those five teams have combined for a 2-9 Big 12 record.
The Cowboys have already played or will play four of the five teams without a conference win. Of the Big 12’s five teams still unbeaten in league play, OSU only faces Texas Tech.
BYU, Utah and Baylor, which are a combined 7-0 in Big 12 play, are not on the schedule.
That makes Saturday’s game with Houston especially important. The Cougars have only one loss, a two-point defeat at Texas Tech, and Willie Fritz’s team is in the mix as a legitimate Big 12 contender. If OSU wins, it would create separation in the standings and give the Cowboys the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston.
“This is where we want to be,” Morris told his team this week. “These are the games that you dream about playing in … in these atmospheres and on national TV and all the things that come along with it.”
The Big 12 has already shown how thin the margin is under the 12-team playoff setup. In each of the past two seasons, the conference has sent only its champion - Arizona State in 2024 and Texas Tech in 2025. There’s no reason to assume that changes now.
OSU linebacker Tate Romney knows that world well. He was on the 2024 Arizona State team that was picked to finish last in the preseason poll, a miss so severe the Big 12 stopped holding a preseason poll. The Cowboys entered this year with more buzz, but they also came off back-to-back winless Big 12 seasons.
The conference may not have the depth of the Big Ten or SEC, but it can be chaos in its purest form.
“Since I’ve been in the Big 12, it’s almost been like that every single year,” said Romney, now at his third Big 12 school.
The playoff format leaves room for a conference champion from each of the Power Four - the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC - plus the top-ranked Group of Six champion and Notre Dame if the Fighting Irish are in the top 12. That leaves seven at-large spots if Notre Dame isn’t automatically slotted in.
For Oklahoma State, the cleanest path to an at-large bid would be winning out in the regular season and then falling in the Big 12 title game. That would give the Cowboys a respectable stack of wins, including Houston and Texas Tech, plus an Oregon victory that doesn’t look as impressive as it once did.
Still, a 10-2 Oklahoma State probably isn’t enough. The Tulsa loss is a problem, and the conference schedule doesn’t bring the kind of weight that usually survives selection-day scrutiny. There should be plenty of 9-3 teams from the Big Ten and SEC with stronger cases.
The Big 12’s best chance at landing a second team may come through BYU. If the Cougars run the regular season and beat Notre Dame this weekend, then lose in the conference title game, they could still have a strong enough case to join the champion in the playoff. Plenty can still change, of course, but the league’s path remains open.
That’s the bigger point for Oklahoma State, too: it’s early, but not too early to see a lane. The Big 12 is there for the taking, and the Cowboys’ road through it is manageable. The rest starts Saturday in Houston.
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Drew Mestemakers Rise Has Oklahoma State Fans Watching One Big Test
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Among the names drawing the most attention is Drew Mestemaker, whose recent play has pushed him near the top of the conversation as the Big 12 heads into another pressure-filled week. The challenge now is less about whether he belongs in that group and more about how he handles the kind of matchup that can change the tone of a race this deep into October, especially with Houston waiting as one of the leagues bigger measuring sticks. [Read more 🡒]
Baylor Faces Its First Real Big 12 Test Against TCU
The Big 12 picture starts to sharpen in Week 7, and Oklahoma State is right in the middle of it with a trip to Houston. The Cowboys remain part of the conference conversation as the standings begin to sort themselves out, and this game gives them a chance to show they belong with the leagues early pace-setters.
Houston is the kind of test that can help separate a good start from something more lasting, especially with other key Big 12 matchups unfolding around the conference. For Oklahoma State, the stakes go beyond one Saturday, because every result now feeds into how the Cowboys are viewed in a race that still has plenty of room to change. [Read more 🡒]