Iowa State is back at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 9, and the setting should feel different right away. It’s the Cyclones’ first night game of the season, and it comes after two straight road games with a bye week tucked in between. They also enter this one having dropped two in a row, with a fifth ranked opponent on the schedule this season waiting in Oklahoma State.
That’s the backdrop for a matchup that looks like it could get busy fast.
The biggest problem for Iowa State has been slowing down opposing passing games, and that challenge gets even steeper against Drew Mestemaker. The Oklahoma State quarterback leads the Big 12 with 2,326 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, and he has carried over his production from North Texas after following head coach Eric Morris to Stillwater. Against the Cyclones, the expectation is that he keeps rolling.
Mestemaker is projected to have a huge night, going for 400 yards and four touchdowns against an Iowa State pass defense that has struggled to generate pressure. That lack of heat up front is what could allow him to stand in the pocket and carve up the secondary the way Bear Bachmeier and Noah Fifita did.
If Iowa State is going to stay within striking distance, it has to do damage on the ground and manage the clock. Aiden Flora is the key piece there, and he is expected to answer the call against an Oklahoma State defense that has given up plenty of yardage this season. Flora is projected to finish with at least 150 combined yards from scrimmage, giving the Cyclones a chance to keep the game competitive.
Oklahoma State also brings its own weapon in Caleb Hawkins, who has been every bit the impact player the Cowboys hoped for in Year 1. He has 984 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, and his production is part of what makes this offense so difficult to contain.
There’s also a quarterback decision hanging over Iowa State after last week’s ugly loss to Arizona. Jaylen Raynor was benched at halftime, but head coach Jimmy Rogers has said he will return to the veteran for this game. That makes this a major opportunity for Raynor to steady things and keep the job, at least for another week.
The prediction is a strong response from him: at least 65 percent completions, 225-plus passing yards, two touchdown passes and another score on the ground. It would be the kind of outing Iowa State needs if it wants to keep up in what could turn into a track meet.
The Cyclones have already shown they can get into a shootout, beating West Virginia 45-42 in their last win. They may find some offense again here, but the defense is the issue. In the end, Oklahoma State is expected to leave Ames with a 49-28 win, and Rogers would fall to 0-5 against ranked opponents in his tenure.
In Other News...
Oklahoma State Scored 49 And Still Left Fans With One Big Fear
For most of Saturday, Oklahoma State had enough offense to feel like it could survive almost anything. Drew Mestemaker threw for 323 yards and five touchdowns, Caleb Hawkins piled up 275 yards of total offense and scored three times, and the Cowboys kept answering every Iowa State push in a wild Big 12 shootout that had the feel of a game decided by whichever side had the ball last.
But even with all that production, the ending left the Cowboys with the kind of concern that lingers after a loss like this. Iowa State kept finding answers of its own, with Aiden Flora rushing for 221 yards and two touchdowns and Jaylen Raynor accounting for four total touchdowns, and Oklahoma State never quite got the final stop it needed when the game tightened late. The result was a 51-49 defeat that showed just how explosive the Cowboys can be, while also reminding them how thin the margin is when a shootout turns into a finish-line scramble. [Read more 🡒]
Steve Lutz Has A Real Oklahoma State Lineup Decision Before The Opener
Steve Lutz came to Stillwater with the mandate to lift Oklahoma State back into the NCAA Tournament picture, and the first real test of how quickly that rebuild can take shape arrives with the season opener against Incarnate Word. After three exhibition games, the Cowboys have at least given their new coach something useful to sort through: a few players have flashed enough to make the early rotation picture feel less settled than it might have seemed a month ago.
Among the names making noise are freshman Felisi, Jacob Walker and Kashie Natt, all of whom turned in encouraging stretches during exhibition play. The challenge for Lutz now is less about finding talent than deciding how to arrange it, because the opener is close enough that the lineup choices start to matter in a hurry, and the best answer may not be the most obvious one. [Read more 🡒]
Steve Lutz Just Added Tension To Oklahoma States Opener
Oklahoma States season opener against Incarnate Word already had the usual early-year uncertainty, and Steve Lutz added a little more of it while updating the status of his roster. The Cowboys are still sorting through availability as they get ready to tip off, with Lutz offering a broader look at where the team stands physically and how preparation has gone heading into the first game.
The most immediate question is at point guard, where Clary is dealing with a groin injury but appears to be moving in the right direction. Lutz also pointed to the longer-term recovery picture elsewhere on the roster, including Fallahs rehab from a torn ACL, as Oklahoma State tries to balance caution with the need to get off to a clean start. [Read more 🡒]