It has been circled for a while, and now Oklahoma State and Texas Tech finally get their shot at each other in Week 11.
The Cowboys enter at 6-3 overall and 4-2 in Big 12 play, bowl eligible for the first time in three years and still hanging around the race for the Big 12 Championship Game. The math is not exactly friendly, but the path is there if they keep winning.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, comes in at 8-1 and 5-1, defending Big 12 champions and very much in the hunt to get back to the title game. With Utah undefeated and rolling, the Red Raiders would be Utah’s opponent as long as they keep taking care of business.
There are also the obvious Oklahoma State-Texas Tech connections with Cowboys head coach Eric Morris. He played at Texas Tech under Mike Leach and later served as Patrick Mahomes’ offensive coordinator.
And if this one turns into the kind of game the numbers suggest, it could get wild fast. The two teams combined for 119 points in their games last week, and while Kansas State and West Virginia are not exactly defensive powerhouses, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech have enough firepower to make this feel like a track meet anyway.
The Cowboys just put up 66 points against Kansas State, breaking their program record for points in Manhattan and doing it by halftime with 49. Texas Tech answered with a 53-48 win over West Virginia, a game in which the Red Raiders had trouble slowing Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook.
The offenses are the real story here. Oklahoma State is averaging 47.8 points per game in Big 12 play, while Texas Tech is right behind at 36.8. The Cowboys have been rolling with Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and Justin Bowick, while Texas Tech has leaned on Thomas Castellanos to spark the attack since taking over as starter.
That is why the expectation here is simple: points, and plenty of them. Take the over.
Mestemaker has been on a heater, and the numbers are getting silly. Against Kansas State, he did something no other Big 12 player has ever done by throwing for four touchdowns, rushing for a touchdown and catching a touchdown pass.
The only other FBS player to pull that off in the last 30 years was Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch. Two weeks earlier, he threw five touchdown passes against Iowa State.
Against Colorado, he passed for 386 yards, his closest brush with 400 so far.
He enters this one second in the country with 2,962 passing yards and first with 29 touchdown passes. In an offense built for this kind of production, he looks like the better trigger man than Castellanos, even with Texas Tech’s quarterback giving the Red Raiders a major boost.
So the bold call is this: Mestemaker gets over 400 passing yards for the first time and throws five touchdowns. He may throw a pick, but this offense has been good at turning mistakes into the next big play, and the offensive line is healthy enough to keep everything humming.
The defenses have their moments, but neither side has been consistent enough to inspire much confidence. Oklahoma State is giving up 27.2 points per game overall and 31.7 in league play, and it was just two weeks ago that the Cowboys allowed 51 to Iowa State.
Texas Tech is allowing 24.1 per game this season and 28.2 in conference games. Oklahoma State cornerback LaDainian Fields has been the most productive corner in the Big 12 with six interceptions in his last four games, while Texas Tech’s linebackers - Ben Roberts, Austin Romaine and John Curry - have all returned an interception for a touchdown.
Still, the key defensive play in this game feels like it will belong to Oklahoma State, and it should come late, either setting up the winning score or sealing the game.
Texas Tech has its own weapons, with Castellanos joined by J’Koby Williams and Kenny Johnson. Coy Eakin is out, which trims the receiving group a bit, but Castellanos’ legs can cover some of that ground.
So yes, this has the look of a late-night shootout at Boone Pickens Stadium. And if the script plays out the way it seems likely to, Oklahoma State fans could be storming the field for a second time this season.
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