Oklahoma State heads to Kansas State in Week 10 with the mission now much simpler than it was a week ago: get to six wins, lock up bowl eligibility, and leave Manhattan with something better than the memory of last year’s trip.
The Cowboys are 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the Big 12 after last week’s 51-49 loss to Iowa State, a result that all but wiped out their path back into the conference championship race. Now they need four straight wins and a chaotic finish around them just to keep that door cracked. For Kansas State, the record sits at 4-4 and 1-4 in the Big 12, and the Wildcats are trying to steady themselves at home.
That’s part of what makes this game feel loaded for Oklahoma State. In 2024, the Cowboys went to Manhattan ranked and got blown out, a loss that helped start the two-year spiral that ended with Mike Gundy’s firing and Eric Morris being hired. This time, OSU is looking for a much cleaner exit.
The biggest reason for optimism is Caleb Hawkins. He’s piled up more than 600 yards of total offense over the last three games and nearly 300 of those came against Iowa State last Saturday.
On the ground, he’s been getting better every week, rushing for 194 yards against the Cyclones after posting progressively larger totals in each of the previous two games. He still hasn’t crossed the 200-yard rushing mark, but this matchup points in that direction.
Kansas State’s run defense has been vulnerable, ranking No. 103 nationally and allowing 166.1 rushing yards per game. At the same time, the Wildcats are No. 7 against the pass, which should force them to focus heavily on quarterback Drew Mestemaker and open the door for Hawkins to work.
That’s why a big day on the ground feels very much in play. Hawkins rushing for 225 yards is not out of the question.
Kansas State’s offense, though, is built to make life difficult on defenses. The Wildcats are averaging 426.6 yards per game, good for No. 34 in the country, and the balance is what makes them tough to pin down. They’re averaging 205 rushing yards and 221 passing yards, so opponents can’t simply load up to stop one phase and ignore the other.
That puts pressure on an Oklahoma State defense that was shredded last week. Iowa State piled up nearly 600 total yards and scored 51 points, and the Cowboys will need a much better showing if they want to win. Holding Kansas State under 400 yards would be a challenge, especially with Blake Barnett set to start at quarterback for the Wildcats.
Barnett isn’t a familiar name to many fans, but he turned in a strong performance against Colorado, finishing with nearly 300 total yards of offense. He threw three touchdown passes in that game and was sacked three times, which gives Oklahoma State a clear target: pressure him consistently and try to force mistakes.
That’s especially important because the Cowboys have a full game of tape on Barnett now. As the thinking goes, the second game for a new quarterback can be tougher than the first because defensive coordinators finally have something to study. Oklahoma State has that advantage now, and Skyler Cassidy and Morris are expected to challenge the unit accordingly.
The Cowboys did show a little more disruption two weeks ago against Colorado, when the Buffaloes unraveled in the second half. Oklahoma State forced a fumble, and LaDainian Fields intercepted two passes. But this hasn’t been a defense that creates many turnovers, and it has carried a negative turnover margin all season.
Still, the matchup gives OSU a path. If the pass rush shows up and Hawkins takes advantage of the Wildcats’ run defense, the Cowboys can put themselves in position to win their sixth game and clinch a bowl berth for the first time since 2023.
The prediction here is that Oklahoma State does just enough. The Wildcats should still move the ball, and the Cowboys may give them a short field at least once with a couple of turnovers, which should help push the scoring higher. But OSU is projected to slow Kansas State enough to come out on top.
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