Oklahoma State heads to Morgantown on Saturday with a chance to do something it hasn’t done in a while: pick up its first Big 12 Conference win since 2023 and leave with a road victory at West Virginia.
The Cowboys are 2-1, the Mountaineers are 3-0, and both teams are getting votes in the AP Top 25 and the USA Today Top 25 coaches poll without cracking either ranking yet. A win here could change that conversation fast.
And if you’re looking for the cleanest path for Oklahoma State to walk out with the upset, it starts on the ground. West Virginia comes in ranked No. 6 nationally in rushing yards at 283 per game, while the Cowboys sit at No. 29 at 227.1. That doesn’t mean OSU is about to turn into a ground-and-pound outfit, but it does set up the possibility that the Cowboys finish with more rushing yards when this one is over.
There’s a case for it. West Virginia’s run defense hasn’t faced a unit quite like Oklahoma State’s yet, at least based on the numbers so far.
Coastal Carolina gave up 281 rushing yards, UT Martin allowed 316, and Virginia surrendered 247. Virginia’s run defense is No. 69 nationally at 126.0 yards allowed per game.
On the other side, Oklahoma State’s defense is tied for No. 35 against the run at 100 yards per game, and its front four has done a strong job of setting the edge and keeping outside runs contained. The Cowboys also have reliable tacklers at corner, linebacker and safety.
That doesn’t mean West Virginia gets shut down. It means the Cowboys have a chance to keep the Mountaineers from rolling.
The same idea applies to West Virginia’s defense. The Mountaineers are giving up 119 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 64 nationally.
With all the fronts and blitz looks they’re expected to use, quarterback Drew Mestemaker’s ability to identify what’s coming could matter a lot. If he gets the picture right, he can put the Cowboys in better run situations and open the door for running back Caleb Hawkins to have a big day.
West Virginia wants to win with volume. Oklahoma State may be able to answer with bigger plays.
Special teams could also tilt things OSU’s way. Miles Coleman has already flashed as a punt return threat, and last week there were moments when a return felt close to breaking.
West Virginia will almost certainly have noticed that and adjusted, but if Coleman finds the right seam, he could take one all the way. The Cowboys’ best chance in the return game may be there, especially since the Mountaineers have kicked off 22 times and all 22 have gone for touchbacks.
Mestemaker’s ball security is another storyline worth watching. He has turned it over at least once in each of his first three games with Oklahoma State, though the numbers have trended in the right direction.
Against Tulsa, he had three turnovers - two interceptions and a fumble. Against Oregon, it was two interceptions on tipped passes.
Against Murray State, he lost a fumble. If that pattern keeps moving the right way, the Cowboys would love to see him clean in Morgantown.
That won’t be easy. West Virginia defensive coordinator Zac Alley is expected to throw multiple fronts and a steady mix of blitz packages at him, and he likes to disguise them.
For Mestemaker, that makes this one of the sharper mental tests he’s faced so far. Every snap will be a read.
Still, there are reasons to think he can get through it without a giveaway. He’s grown quickly as a decision-maker since the Tulsa game, and he now has three weeks of chemistry with five receivers he trusts: Wyatt Young, Chris Barnes, Justin Bowick, Miles Coleman and Terrence Lewis.
Tight end Carson Kolb has become a dependable outlet, too. The protection has improved since Week 1, and Mestemaker and head coach Eric Morris go over what’s working and what isn’t on Thursdays, which helps narrow the call sheet on game day.
If Oklahoma State does control the run game, that should help with possession and keep Mestemaker in better spots.
The matchup has more to it than it may be getting nationally. Oklahoma State’s early stumble against Tulsa ended up serving a purpose, while West Virginia has looked strong outside of a shaky second half against Coastal Carolina.
Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. fits what head coach Rick Rodriguez wants to do. So this one comes down to which defense makes the bigger plays when the game tightens.
The pick here is Oklahoma State’s defense getting the job done late.
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Benge had already put himself in rare company by becoming the first Mets rookie since 1983 to post a 15-15 season, and the combination of power, speed and durability has kept his name in the conversation all year. His all-around value has only grown because of the way he has handled center field, where New York has leaned on him for more than just bat-to-ball skills, and the next milestone hanging out there gives this rookie run a little extra intrigue as the season moves along. [Read more 🡒]