With the calendar creeping toward March, Oklahoma State finds itself in the thick of a high-stakes stretch run. The Cowboys, sitting at 16-8 overall and 4-7 in Big 12 play, are chasing their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2021-and the margin for error is razor-thin.
Head coach Steve Lutz knows it. His team’s path to the postseason is lined with landmines, and it starts this Saturday in Stillwater, where Oklahoma State hosts a TCU squad that just pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the week.
The Cowboys are coming off a tough two-game road swing through Arizona that exposed some of their most persistent issues. After getting blown out by No.
1 Arizona, 84-47, they looked more competitive against Arizona State but still came up short, 85-76. That loss stung-not just because of the score, but because of how it happened.
Oklahoma State clawed back late, trimming a double-digit deficit to just one at 69-68. But a 9-0 Sun Devils run sealed the deal, and the Cowboys never recovered.
Lutz didn’t mince words after the game.
“The game was lost way before then,” he said. **“We turned the ball over 17 times and gave them 26 points.
We gave up offensive rebounds for 24 more. In this league, you can’t give people 50 points.
You can’t spot people 50 and expect to win. That’s on us.”
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It’s hard to argue with him. Arizona State didn’t exactly light it up from the field-they shot just 40% overall and hit only 5-of-21 from three. But they made up for it at the free-throw line (28-of-35) and on the glass, where they outrebounded Oklahoma State 45-34, including a staggering 19 offensive boards.
Those are the kind of numbers that get you beat in the Big 12, a league Lutz described in blunt terms: **“This is not a two-hand-touch league. This is a tackle football league.
If you’re not going to fight and you’re not going to scrap and you’re not going to rebound, you got no shot.” **
And the Cowboys don’t have many shots left. Of their seven remaining games, three are on the road-where they’ve struggled mightily, logging just one Big 12 road win since Lutz took over.
Two of the home games? Against No.
9 Kansas and No. 3 Houston.
That makes Saturday’s matchup with TCU feel like a must-win.
But the Horned Frogs are coming in with momentum of their own after a gritty 62-55 upset of No. 5 Iowa State. It was a signature win for Jamie Dixon’s group, and it may have changed the trajectory of their season.
A big part of that win was sophomore forward Micah Robinson, who got just his second start of the season-and made the most of it. Robinson dropped 17 points, grabbed five boards, swiped two steals, and threw down a pair of highlight-reel dunks that helped bury the Cyclones late.
“It definitely means a lot,” Robinson said after the win. **“It shows the trust the coaching staff and my teammates have in me.
It meant a lot to be able to come out there and compete.” **
So now, Oklahoma State faces a TCU team that’s finding its rhythm, while the Cowboys are trying to stop the bleeding. The stakes?
About as high as they get in mid-February. A win keeps the dream alive.
A loss, and that hill Lutz keeps talking about starts to look more like a mountain.