The Big 12 is feeling the squeeze in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update, with just seven teams currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament and three more hovering on the bubble. It's a surprising development for a league that’s typically one of the most competitive in college basketball. As we head into another pivotal weekend, several programs are staring down make-or-break moments.
Big 12's Tournament Picture: Who’s In, Who’s Close
Lunardi’s latest field includes Arizona (1-seed), Houston (2-seed), Iowa State (3-seed), BYU (3-seed), Texas Tech (4-seed), Kansas (5-seed), and UCF (8-seed). That’s your current Big 12 representation in the 68-team bracket.
On the outside looking in? Baylor and TCU sit among the “Next Four Out,” joined by Missouri and Creighton. Oklahoma State is still hanging around the bubble, but time is running out for the Cowboys to make a convincing case.
Let’s break down where things stand for a few of these teams heading into the weekend.
Baylor vs. TCU: A Bubble Battle in Waco
Baylor and TCU are both reeling, each dropping four of their last five games. But Saturday’s matchup in Waco is more than just a rivalry-it’s a lifeline.
The Bears (11-7, 1-5 Big 12) are coming off back-to-back losses at Kansas and Texas Tech. A win at home this weekend would not only stop the bleeding but also set the table for a potentially favorable stretch.
Up next: road trip to Cincinnati, then a home game against Colorado. Two winnable games that could build momentum before a major showdown at No.
2 Iowa State on February 7.
If Baylor can string together three straight, they’ll be right back in the conversation. But it starts with handling business against a TCU squad that’s just as desperate.
Kansas Eyes a Statement Against BYU
Kansas isn’t in danger of missing the tournament, but the Jayhawks have work to do if they want to improve their seeding. Currently projected as a 5-seed, Bill Self’s team has a golden opportunity to climb the bracket with a win over No. 13 BYU at Allen Fieldhouse next weekend.
Before that, though, there’s a road trip to in-state rival Kansas State. Self revealed that star freshman Darryn Peterson is questionable with a sprained ankle. Peterson played 32 minutes in the recent win over Colorado-his most action since January 10 at West Virginia-so his availability will be key.
If Kansas can take care of business in Manhattan and then knock off BYU at home, don’t be surprised to see them jump into the top-three seed range. The margin for error is slim, but the path is there.
UCF’s Slide: How Costly Was the Iowa State Loss?
UCF has been one of the Big 12’s more intriguing stories this season, but their recent stretch has raised serious questions. The Knights were blown out by No.
9 Iowa State, 87-57, just days after a competitive loss to top-ranked Arizona. Despite the setbacks, they’re still hanging onto the last Big 12 spot in Lunardi’s projection.
But here’s the thing: it’s not just about losing to elite teams. The more damaging loss may have come earlier this month in Stillwater, where UCF fell by 11 to Oklahoma State-a team currently outside the projected field.
That one stings a bit more, especially coming on the heels of a big-time win over then-No. 17 Kansas.
If the Cowboys pull off another upset this weekend-this time over Iowa State-it could put even more pressure on UCF. Another stumble, especially against an unranked opponent, might be enough to knock them off the bubble entirely.
The Road Ahead
The Big 12 still has time to shift the narrative, but the clock is ticking. For teams like Baylor and TCU, every possession matters now.
For Kansas, it’s about polishing the résumé and pushing for a higher seed. And for UCF, it’s about proving they belong-not just by hanging with the top teams, but by beating the ones they’re supposed to.
This weekend could be a turning point for several programs. The margins are razor-thin, and in a league as deep and unforgiving as the Big 12, that’s exactly how it should be.