Oklahoma State opens the Eric Morris era on Sept. 5 at Tulsa, and the Cowboys are stepping into a 12-game slate that should tell us plenty about where this program stands.
Whether that schedule is as brutal as some are making it out to be is another question entirely.
The non-conference portion was set years ago, and the Big 12 portion comes from the third year of a four-year scheduling matrix the league put in place before the 2024 season, when the conference expanded to 16 teams. So the lineup OSU faces was largely locked in long before anyone started debating how hard it really is.
Recently, On3’s Brett McMurphy ranked Oklahoma State’s schedule tied for the fifth toughest in the Big 12, alongside BYU. He didn’t lay out much in the way of explanation, but he did point to OSU’s matchup with Oregon as one of the toughest non-conference games for any Big 12 team.
That part is hard to argue with. The Cowboys also have Texas Tech and Houston on the docket, and both are being talked about as contenders, with plenty of people slotting them among the Top 3 teams in the league.
Still, strength-of-schedule talk gets messy fast in the transfer portal era, especially when it leans too heavily on last year’s records. Oregon’s numbers can make the overall opponent record look stronger than it really is, while Murray State’s 1-11 mark pushes the other way.
Murray State and Tulsa combined for five wins last season - three more than Oregon lost. The Ducks will absolutely be a challenge, but for a team trying to get to a bowl and maybe hang around the Big 12 race, that one game probably won’t define the season either way.
If you narrow the focus to conference play, the picture changes. Oklahoma State’s nine Big 12 opponents went 61-51 last year overall, but that includes non-conference games.
Strip those out, and the combined Big 12 record drops to 37-43. Remove Texas Tech and Houston from the mix, and the remaining seven opponents were 23-39 in league play.
That’s where the schedule starts to look a little less intimidating than the ranking suggests. Four of OSU’s opponents finished below .500 last year, and two have second-year coaches.
Of the five that finished above .500, two are now under new head coaches: Iowa State’s Jimmy Rogers and Kansas State’s Collin Klein. Those programs combined to go 10-8 last season.
No Power Four schedule is soft. Oklahoma State’s isn’t either.
But tied for fifth toughest in the Big 12? Maybe not.
Based on last year’s numbers, it looks more like a manageable schedule with a few heavy hitters mixed in - and enough opportunity for the Cowboys to put together a winning record if things break right.
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