The Big 12’s 16-team race is wide open enough that a few programs can beat the public’s read on them, and the five most obvious candidates all come with a clear path to outkicking their preseason projections.
Oklahoma State is the boldest pick in the group. The Cowboys are coming off a 1-11 season, so the bar is low, but there’s real buzz that Eric Morris has upgraded the talent level fast enough to make them more than a cleanup job.
A leap all the way into the Big 12 title game would take a lot falling into place, yet the offense has the kind of pieces that can change a season in a hurry. Drew Mestemaker leads a set of offensive triplets that could be among the best in college football.
If Oklahoma State is going to clear the realistic 7-5 expectation, the defense has to take a huge step forward after being one of the worst units in college football in 2025.
UCF also has a chance to surprise because the biggest problem from last season may already be solved. The Knights finished 5-7 under Scott Frost in 2025, and the quarterback situation never really settled down enough to get them to a bowl.
This year looks different with James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett III coming in to stabilize the offense. Add in several starters back from last year’s defense and a second season with coordinator Alex Grinch, and UCF suddenly looks like a team that can beat the .500-or-so expectations many have set for it.
Kansas State enters with more attention than usual after the coaching handoff from Chris Klieman to Collin Klein. That alone has lifted the ceiling in the eyes of plenty of observers.
The Wildcats were just an average team a season ago, though, so the real question is whether the defense can be rebuilt after losing nearly every starter and whether Avery Johnson can finally deliver on the massive hype around him. Klein’s presence matters here.
If anyone can unlock the fourth-year quarterback, it’s the former Kansas State star who helped recruit him before heading to Texas A&M and eventually making his way back to Manhattan.
Baylor is the kind of team that could either do just enough to quiet the noise or end up right back in the middle of it. Dave Aranda has been living on hot-seat watch for what feels like forever, and he was openly apologizing for last season during his time with the media at Big 12 Media Days.
The Bears went into the portal and landed former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway, and that move gives them a real shot at getting the offense moving in the right direction. Aranda also gave up defensive play-calling duties, which could free him up to manage the entire operation more effectively.
If the pieces click, Baylor has a path to being a real factor.
Iowa State rounds out the list with a different kind of case. The expectations are lower because Matt Campbell is out and Jimmy Rogers is in, and the roster has been reshaped with more than 50 transfers.
Even so, Rogers brought in a workable quarterback in Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor and added plenty of experience on defense through the portal. Enough Cyclones stayed in place from last season to give the program a foundation, and if Iowa State catches fire early, it has a chance to finish well above what most are projecting for 2026.
In Other News...
Oklahoma State Is Nearing One Big Offensive Line Decision
Oklahoma State is getting close to the point where the offensive line picture starts to sharpen, and Eric Morris said the starting group is mostly in place as the Cowboys keep working through camp. The emphasis now is less about discovering the first five and more about sorting out the backup and rotational battles that can shape a season once injuries and in-game adjustments enter the picture.
The Cowboys are treating this week like a mock game week, complete with a simulated game on Saturday, as they build toward their opener against Tulsa. Morris also pointed to recruiting as another priority, with official visits coming up for future classes, but the immediate focus is on getting the line settled enough that the staff can keep turning its attention to the depth behind it. [Read more 🡒]
Eric Morris Sent A Clear Message About Oklahoma States Punt Team
A new special-teams era in Stillwater is already coming with a little perspective attached, and Eric Morris is making it clear he does not want any confusion around the punt team. He recently shared an anecdote about a punter who mixed up rugby and American football rules and ended up sending a ball into the stands, a reminder of how strange things can get when technique and rule knowledge are not perfectly aligned.
Morris also said he has a lot of respect for Lachie Pozzobon, who comes to Oklahoma State with American football experience after transferring from Stephen F. Austin. That background matters to a staff that wants every detail of the punt operation handled cleanly this season, and Morris said he plans to be precise with that unit so the Cowboys avoid the kind of mistakes that can flip field position in a hurry. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma State Just Landed A Big In-State Win For 2027
Oklahoma State picked up a meaningful in-state recruiting win for its 2027 class when Jenks offensive lineman Odaefe Oruru switched his commitment from Arkansas to the Cowboys. The four-star prospect gives Eric Morris and his staff another high-end target to build around, and it fits the broader push the program has made to deepen ties with Oklahoma high school coaches while trying to keep top local talent closer to Stillwater.
Orurus decision matters not just because he is viewed as one of the better offensive line prospects in the state, but because it signals the Cowboys are making real headway in a space that can shape the programs future. Oklahoma State has spent considerable time on relationship-building across the state, and landing a player of Orurus profile suggests those efforts are starting to show up on the recruiting trail. [Read more 🡒]