No. 1 Texas heads into Saturday’s Red River Rivalry with a chance to keep rolling against an Oklahoma team that has not looked anywhere close to steady on offense. The Longhorns are trying to win the matchup for a third straight year, and they’ll do it at the State Fair of Texas with Arch Manning under center and one of the sport’s top defenses backing him up.
Oklahoma brings a strong defense of its own, but the Sooners’ season has been dragged down by an offense that has fallen apart under Brent Venables. They’re 2-2 after last week’s 41-13 loss to No.
2 Georgia, a game in which they turned it over four times. One of those giveaways was a rough fumble by quarterback John Mateer that Georgia returned for a touchdown.
The numbers around Oklahoma’s offense are ugly. Through Power Four games, the Sooners are averaging just 11.5 points per game.
They’ve managed only 2.9 yards per carry, which is the worst mark in the SEC. Against Georgia, they didn’t score until they were already down 28-0 in the third quarter, and Texas’ defense grades out better in plenty of areas.
That offensive slide has shown up in this rivalry, too. Oklahoma has lost three of four Red River Rivalries under Venables and has averaged only 3.0 points per game in those defeats. Texas won 23-6 last year after the Sooners committed three turnovers and never found the end zone.
One of Texas’ biggest defensive weapons is Colin Simmons, and he’s coming off a performance that already has a place in the school record book. Against Tennessee, the junior piled up a Texas-record 5.5 sacks against freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon, a night that helped lead to Brandon’s benching a week later. Simmons had 29.5 tackles for loss and 21 sacks over his first two seasons, and Texas will be leaning on that kind of production again.
The other big question for the Longhorns is which version of Arch Manning shows up. His talent is obvious, but the results can swing wildly from one half to the next.
In the first half against Ohio State, he completed just 7 of 14 passes for 44 yards. Last season against Texas A&M, he went 5-of-15 for 28 yards.
Oklahoma may not be equipped to punish those stretches, but Texas still needs Manning to get going early if it wants to stay at No. 1.
Betting the rivalry is never simple, especially when the spread is big, but Oklahoma’s track record under Venables makes this one hard to trust. Three of the Sooners’ four games against Texas under him finished with a margin of more than 17 points, and this version of Oklahoma looks even shakier.
Upsets happen in college football all the time, but this would be a real shocker. Pick: Texas -8.5
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In Other News...
Oklahoma Faces A Red River Concern Fans Already Feared
Oklahoma heads into the Red River matchup with a defense that could get a boost from a couple of returning pieces, but the more immediate concern is on the other side of the ball. The Sooners are working through injury issues along the offensive line and at running back, and that combination can shape everything from protection to play-calling in a game where margin for error is already slim.
Michael Fasusi is doubtful, Eddy Pierre-Louis is questionable and Xavier Robinson is out, leaving Oklahoma to sort through a patchwork situation at key spots before facing Texas. There are several other availability questions on the report as well, while Texas enters with fewer players listed as unavailable, which only sharpens the concern for a Sooners offense that would prefer far cleaner health heading into one of the season's biggest tests. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahomas Receiver Frustration Just Took Another Hit Before Texas
A week before the Red River showdown, Oklahoma added another wrinkle to a wide receiver room that has already been under scrutiny. Freshman Jahsiear Rogers has been dismissed from the football program, according to an OU spokesperson, and he has already been removed from the teams online roster. Rogers had not carved out a major role this season, but he arrived with the kind of recruiting profile that made him an intriguing long-term piece for the Sooners.
For a passing attack trying to find more consistency, losing a young receiver who once looked like a possible building block is another reminder of how much turnover can shape a season. The Sooners are now moving toward Texas with less depth and one fewer developmental option at a position that has been watched closely all fall. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma's 2028 Running Back Problem Just Got Worse Before Texas Week
The recruiting battle around the Red River Rivalry picked up another jolt when Micah Rhodes, a four-star running back in the 2028 class, backed off his Oklahoma pledge and announced for Texas just ahead of the matchup. Rhodes had originally committed to the Sooners, so the flip adds a fresh layer of sting to a weekend that already carries plenty of recruiting and regional weight for both programs.
Rhodes change of heart came after the departure of Oklahoma running backs coach DeMarco Murray, a reminder of how quickly the staff turnover can reshape a class. The Sooners still do not have a replacement lined up for Rhodes in the 2028 group, though they remain involved with other targets such as Jayshawn Mitchell as they try to steady that part of the board. [Read more 🡒]