College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting the Top 12 After a Wild Regular Season Finale
The final week of the college football regular season didn’t just shake things up - it flipped the script heading into Championship Weekend. Texas A&M finally took its first loss, Ole Miss lost its head coach, and Vanderbilt continued to prove it's no longer the SEC's perennial punching bag. With only conference title games left before the College Football Playoff committee unveils its final rankings and the 12-team field, let’s break down how the top 12 should look when the next rankings drop Tuesday night.
1. Ohio State (Defending Champions, Undefeated)
The Buckeyes have been the wire-to-wire No. 1 team this season, and they just backed it up with a commanding 27-9 win over Michigan in Ann Arbor. That wasn’t just a rivalry win - it was a statement.
Now, they head into the Big Ten Championship Game for a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown that will determine supremacy in the conference and likely secure the top overall seed in the playoff.
2. Indiana (Undefeated, Big Ten Title Shot)
Indiana’s standing at No. 2 doesn’t really matter - because they’ll get their shot at No. 1 on Saturday night. With Texas A&M no longer undefeated, there’s no longer a debate: the Big Ten title game is a de facto battle for the top spot. Indiana’s resume stacks up with anyone’s, and a win over Ohio State would cement them as the top dog heading into the postseason.
3. Georgia (One Loss, SEC Championship Bound)
Georgia's only blemish came in a close loss to Alabama back in September, but since then, the Bulldogs have looked every bit the powerhouse we’ve come to expect. They now get a chance to avenge that loss in the SEC Championship Game - and if they do, don’t be surprised if Georgia makes a push for the No. 1 seed. This is a team built for December and January football.
4. Texas Tech (Big 12 Dominance, One Loss)
The Red Raiders have been steamrolling Big 12 competition like no one else in the conference’s history - eight wins by 22 points or more is no small feat. Their lone loss came against Arizona State, and they were without their starting quarterback in that one.
With a Big 12 title in hand, Texas Tech deserves a first-round bye and a spot in the top four. This team has earned it on the field.
5. Ole Miss (One Loss, But a Major Coaching Change)
Ole Miss wrapped up the regular season with a win over rival Mississippi State, but the bigger news came off the field: Lane Kiffin is headed to LSU and won’t coach the Rebels in the postseason. That’s a huge question mark heading into the playoff, and it’s fair to wonder how the committee will weigh that. But based on what we do know - the Rebels’ body of work - they’ve done enough to stay in the top five, regardless of who’s wearing the headset.
6. Oklahoma (Two Losses, Five Ranked Wins)
Yes, Oklahoma has two losses. But look closer.
Those losses came to Ole Miss and Texas - both top-tier teams. And the Sooners have racked up five wins over ranked opponents, more than anyone else in the country.
Their defense has been the calling card, and in a season where offense has stolen the headlines, OU’s ability to shut teams down should not be overlooked. This is a battle-tested team that deserves to be in the thick of the playoff picture.
7. Alabama (Two Losses, SEC Title Shot)
Alabama’s resume is strong, but their loss to Oklahoma earlier in the season keeps them just behind the Sooners. That said, the Crimson Tide are still alive.
A win in the SEC Championship Game could vault them into the top four, depending on how things shake out. But a loss?
That likely knocks them out of the 12-team field entirely, especially with automatic bids in play. It’s win-or-go-home for Bama.
8. Oregon (One Loss, Dominant But Unproven)
The Ducks have been quietly dominant, with their only loss coming against Indiana. The issue?
That was their only real test. Oregon’s schedule hasn’t done them any favors, and while the eye test says they’re legit, the resume lacks the big wins to push them higher.
Still, at No. 8, they’d host a first-round playoff game - and no one’s going to want to travel to Eugene in December.
9. Texas A&M (First Loss, Strength of Schedule in Question)
The Aggies finally dropped a game, and without that undefeated record propping them up, their resume starts to look a little thin. Yes, they’re in the SEC, but they managed to avoid most of the top-tier competition in the conference. That said, their win over Notre Dame still carries weight, and they’ve done enough to stay in the top 10 - but just barely.
10. BYU (One Loss, Needs Big 12 Title to Climb)
The Cougars have a nice win over Utah, but the rest of the schedule hasn’t exactly impressed. Their only loss came against Texas Tech - the team they’ll face again in the Big 12 Championship.
If BYU can avenge that loss, they’ll make a strong case to move up. But without that win, they’re likely stuck here on the fringe of the top eight.
11. Vanderbilt (10-2, Big Momentum, Heisman Candidate at QB)
Vanderbilt is turning heads, and for good reason. At 10-2, the Commodores just took down Tennessee and continue to rewrite their own history.
Quarterback Diego Pavia is playing like a Heisman contender, and this team has shown it can hang with anyone. The skeptics might scoff, but Vandy has earned this spot.
If they’re the first team out of the playoff field, nobody’s going to be excited about seeing them in a bowl game instead of the bracket.
12. Miami (Beat Notre Dame, But No Title Shot)
The Hurricanes beat Notre Dame - and that matters. While neither team is playing for a conference title, Miami has the head-to-head advantage and deserves the nod here.
But without a championship game to boost their resume, both Miami and Notre Dame are likely on the outside looking in. The margin for error is razor-thin at this point in the season, and the Canes may have run out of chances to impress the committee.
What’s Next
With championship weekend on deck, everything is still in play. The Big Ten title game will sort out the top two spots.
The SEC Championship could knock out a contender or elevate one into the top four. And for teams like BYU and Oklahoma, one more big win could be the difference between a home playoff game and being left out altogether.
The committee will have its hands full Tuesday night - but based on what we’ve seen on the field, this is how the top 12 should stack up.