The Red River Shootout arrives with Texas carrying the No. 1 ranking and Oklahoma trying to steady itself after slipping to 2-2. On paper, this one has the look of a lopsided heavyweight meeting: Texas has already banked signature wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, while Oklahoma is still dealing with the same ugly question mark that has followed it early in the season - an offense that has been, in the source’s words, “very anemic.”
The SP+ model leans hard toward the Longhorns. Its projection calls for Texas to beat Oklahoma 27-17, a 9.9-point margin that comes with a 73 percent win probability for Texas. That makes the Longhorns a clear favorite in one of the bigger gaps on the weekend slate.
SP+ is described as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that tries to forecast results by focusing on “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.” So far this season, the model is 146-122-3 against the spread, good for a 54.4 win percentage.
The more interesting question may not be whether Texas wins, but whether it does enough to keep the top spot in the AP poll. Even with a victory, the Longhorns could still face a challenge from No.
2 Georgia and No. 6 Alabama, who meet in primetime.
A decisive win over Oklahoma would give Texas a stronger case to remain No. 1.
There are still some real football concerns for Texas, even at 4-0. Arch Manning has looked better than he did at this point last year, but he still hasn’t fully lived up to expectations. He’s completing 63 percent of his passes, yet he’s also making “some curious decisions” and doesn’t appear fully comfortable in the pocket against stronger fronts.
That said, Oklahoma’s defense is no soft landing spot. The Sooners are still one of college football’s best on that side of the ball, ranking 4th against the pass, top 25 in scoring, and 3rd in third-down conversions. That could create some early stress for Manning.
Texas, though, has a matchup edge of its own. The Longhorns bring a group of elite pass rushers that can disrupt blockers, collapse the pocket, and put pressure on John Mateer again and again. That should eventually tilt the game Texas’ way and create enough separation for the Longhorns to pull out in the second half.
The call from the model is straightforward: Texas wins, and Texas covers.
In Other News...
Brent Venables Is Standing By Oklahoma's Embattled Play Caller
Ben Arbuckle has taken the heat for Oklahomas recent offensive struggles, and the noise around him has only grown louder after three straight underwhelming showings. Fans have not been shy about their frustration with the production, and the conversation has spilled beyond the usual game-day griping into something more pointed, with polls showing a sizable chunk of the fan base would rather see Lincoln Riley back in charge of the offense.
Brent Venables, though, is not feeding that fire. The Oklahoma coach is standing by his offensive coordinator and making it clear he believes Arbuckle can get the unit turned around, even as the criticism keeps building. For a program that expects better on that side of the ball, the question now is whether Venables confidence becomes a stabilizing force or just the latest test of patience for a restless fan base. [Read more 🡒]
Sooners Fans Need To Know This Before Red River Weekend
The annual Red River showdown returns Oct. 10 at Cotton Bowl Stadium during the State Fair of Texas, and for Sooners fans heading to Dallas, the game-day experience will start well before kickoff. With the fair grounds packed and the rivalry atmosphere in full force, Oklahoma supporters are being urged to arrive early and plan ahead, especially with parking and transportation expected to be part of the pregame challenge.
Safety and security will also be front and center, with a clear bag policy in effect and screening at entry points for everyone coming through. Fans making the trip can also expect the broader fair-week atmosphere to be in play, including live SEC Network shows during the fair, which should only add to the pageantry around one of the most recognizable games on the Sooners calendar. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma's Defense Could Put Texas In Serious Trouble Saturday
Oklahoma has spent the first month of the season looking like a defense built to make life miserable on Saturdays, and that is what makes this Red River matchup so intriguing for Sooners fans. In a week where the college football conversation is filled with upset possibilities, Oklahomas defense stands out as one of the clearest reasons an underdog can flip the script, especially with Texas bringing a young quarterback situation into one of the sports most unforgiving settings.
The matchup matters because the Sooners do not need fireworks to stay in it if their defense keeps forcing Texas into uncomfortable spots. With Arch Manning still searching for rhythm, Oklahoma has a path to muddy the game and turn every possession into a stress test, which is exactly the kind of formula that can turn a rivalry weekend into a problem for the favorite. [Read more 🡒]