Ole Miss heads to Week 11 with its College Football Playoff margin for error basically gone after getting blown out at home by Georgia in Week 10. The Rebels now have to answer quickly, and they’ll try to do it on the road against Oklahoma in a game that feels like a must-win for Trinidad Chambliss and company.
The Sooners come in at 5-4, but that record doesn’t tell the whole story. John Mateer’s team has already shown it can punch above its weight, knocking off Texas in the Red River Rivalry and then taking down Florida in Week 10, a result that likely shut the door on the Gators’ playoff hopes. Oddsmakers have still given Oklahoma a real shot here, with the Sooners listed as -105 underdogs, and the reason is obvious: that defense has been one of the best in the country all season.
Chambliss has been the engine for Ole Miss, but last week was a rough one. The Rebels managed only seven points against Georgia, and Chambliss’ season has swung from Heisman favorite to out of the race after a poor showing in that game.
On the year, the veteran quarterback has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,359 yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions, while also running for seven scores. The highs have been elite.
The turnovers have been a problem.
That puts a spotlight on a tough matchup. Oklahoma ranks No. 2 nationally in adjusted EPA/Play and No. 5 in EPA/Pass, so this is not the kind of defense that gives quarterbacks easy answers. Georgia held Chambliss to 170 passing yards and an interception, and the Sooners figure to make life just as difficult.
Still, there’s a reason Ole Miss is favored. The Rebels have been far more trustworthy on offense than Oklahoma, and that matters in a game that could stay tight.
Ole Miss ranks 14th in adjusted EPA/Play on offense and 27th in success rate, and it has the 10th-best success rate on third and fourth down plays this season. Even after the Georgia loss, that profile is hard to ignore.
Oklahoma’s problem is on the other side of the ball. The Sooners have scored fewer than 30 points in every game except Week 1 against UTEP, and their offense ranks 109th in success rate.
The ground game has been especially shaky, with Oklahoma sitting 126th in EPA/Rush. If there’s a path to beating Ole Miss, it starts on the ground, but the Sooners haven’t shown they can consistently do that.
The Rebels aren’t perfect defensively, but they’ve been better than the Florida unit Oklahoma just carved up. Ole Miss ranks 54th in defensive success rate and 48th in adjusted EPA/Play, which gives it a better chance to survive a low-scoring game.
Ole Miss still has Wofford and Mississippi State left on the regular-season schedule, and it projects to be favored in both. But the first priority is this one, and the Rebels need to handle it. At the end of the day, the edge goes to Chambliss in a game that should stay tight and low-scoring.
In Other News...
Oklahomas New SEC Schedule Leaves One Rivalry Choice Open To Debate
The SECs move to a nine-game conference schedule has already changed the way Oklahoma has to think about the calendar, trimming nonconference flexibility and making every permanent opponent matter a little more. From 2026 through 2029, the league will have each team visit and host every other school once, while still preserving three annual rivals, and for the Sooners that list now includes Texas, Missouri and Ole Miss.
The first two choices make obvious sense in the context of the league and the programs history, but the third has sparked plenty of curiosity because Ole Miss is a newly designated rival despite no prior history between the schools. It is the kind of scheduling wrinkle that can shape the feel of a conference slate for years, and it leaves one open question hanging over Oklahomas SEC future: whether this is the rivalry setup that best fits the Sooners, or just the one the league settled on for now. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Suddenly Has A Bowl Path Fans Will Want To See
The upset win over Florida changed the conversation around Oklahoma in a hurry, putting the Sooners one victory away from bowl eligibility and keeping alive a streak that has stretched for 27 straight seasons. What looked like a murky late-season picture now has some real shape to it, with the program suddenly within reach of another December trip and a chance to keep the postseason run going.
Several bowl projections are already floating around for Oklahoma, and the possibilities have a little extra appeal for fans watching the path ahead. Among the scenarios being discussed are a Las Vegas Bowl matchup with USC or Arizona, along with a Texas Bowl pairing against Oklahoma State, though everything still depends on how the rest of the season plays out. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Just Got A Troubling Trell Harris Update
Trell Harris recovery has become one of the more sobering storylines around Oklahomas season. The wide receiver has been dealing with a lacerated internal organ suffered in the game against Michigan, and Brent Venables said Harris also had a post-surgery infection that required antibiotics. Even so, the coach said Harris remains in good spirits as he continues the long road back.
Harris is expected to return to Norman by the end of next week, which at least gives the Sooners a clearer timeline for the next phase of his recovery. The bigger reality, though, is that a return to play this season is unlikely, leaving Oklahoma to keep waiting on one of its more difficult injury situations to fully resolve. [Read more 🡒]