NORMAN - Oklahoma’s 2026 season is already at a dangerous crossroads, and the math from here is unforgiving.
The Sooners are on their bye week after a 41-13 loss to No. 2 Georgia on Saturday, a beatdown that came two weeks after a 17-10 defeat at Michigan in Ann Arbor. At 2-2 with eight SEC games still ahead, OU is not out of the College Football Playoff picture yet - but getting back into it would take a massive turnaround.
That’s because the margin for error is basically gone. A losing record would knock Oklahoma out of postseason competition entirely for the first time since 1999, and while going 0-for-the-rest-of-the-way feels extreme, the schedule doesn’t offer many soft spots. There are no more “gimmies” left.
Even teams that look vulnerable on paper - South Carolina and Texas A&M among them - still have plenty of talent. And with the way Oklahoma’s offense has looked through four weeks, there’s no guarantee the Sooners can consistently move the ball against even the conference’s less productive defenses.
John Mateer has already turned it over six times in four games. The offensive line has given up 46 pressures. And the ground game has crawled along at just 2.9 yards per carry.
If those issues linger, a losing season stops being a remote possibility and starts looking like the most likely outcome.
There is still a path to a decent finish, though it requires Oklahoma’s offense to rise at least a little and the defense to keep doing its job. The defense wasn’t flawless against Georgia, but it was cleaner than it had been earlier in the year. The Sooners missed 45 tackles in their first three games, then missed just four against the Bulldogs.
Turnovers, more than anything, wrecked the offense in the Georgia loss. Several giveaways handed the Bulldogs strong field position, and Georgia did what elite teams do: it finished those chances.
The defense doesn’t need to be perfect, or even match last year’s group, for Oklahoma to stay in games. But the offense has to stop giving possessions away if the Sooners want to get anywhere near bowl eligibility.
A 7-5 finish or better would mean Oklahoma also managed a winning record in conference play, and the version of this team that has shown up over the last three weeks does not look equipped to pull that off. Improvement has to come in all three phases.
On offense, OU needs more from Mateer - or from Whitt Newbauer if offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle decides to bench the returning starter. The Sooners also have to protect the ball and find enough production from the running back spot to at least become decent.
On defense, Oklahoma has to keep tackling at the level it showed in Athens and get better against the run after Georgia averaged five yards per carry.
And then there’s kicker Tate Sandell, the 2025 Lou Groza Award winner, who is 3-of-5 on field goals and needs to be sharper.
The schedule doesn’t make any of this easier. Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Missouri are all currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
That’s why the idea of Oklahoma making a serious run back toward the CFP looks so remote. For the Sooners to get to nine wins or more, the offense can’t just improve - it has to become excellent. OU is still lined up against multiple top-tier opponents, plus teams like Florida and Mississippi State that appear to be ahead of schedule in their rebuilds.
The defense may be good enough to keep things respectable, but it can’t be asked to hold elite offenses under 20 points every week. For Oklahoma to have any real chance, the offense has to flip completely.
Right now, that’s a hard sell after the performances against Michigan, New Mexico and Georgia. A quarterback change might be the best shot, but Newbauer’s lack of experience against SEC defenses makes it just as hard to believe he’d suddenly turn into one of college football’s best passers.
So the big picture is simple: making the CFP, or even getting close, is a long shot. For that to happen, just about everything has to break Oklahoma’s way.
In Other News...
Oklahoma Is Gaining Real Ground With A Major In-State Target
Oklahoma has put itself squarely in the mix for one of the states most promising young prospects, as Owasso High School athlete Kamieon Compton-Nero has narrowed his list to five schools. The 2028 standout has already been on campus multiple times, a sign the Sooners have done more than just show early interest in a recruit who is being tracked by Power Four programs across the country.
For Oklahoma, the appeal is obvious. Compton-Nero is being recruited primarily as a safety, and his profile as a highly ranked four-star talent makes him the kind of in-state target the Sooners would love to keep close to home. With plenty of attention still coming from major programs, Oklahomas repeated visits and steady push have at least given it real ground in a recruitment that figures to stay competitive. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahomas Quarterback Problem Feels Uncomfortably Familiar Again
John Mateers turnover issues have put Oklahoma back in a place it knows all too well under Brent Venables, with the offense again forcing an uncomfortable conversation about whether a quarterback change is coming. The Sooners have lived through this before, cycling through Michael Hawkins Jr., Jackson Arnold, Caleb Williams, Spencer Rattler and others in seasons where stability at the most important position never quite took hold.
What makes the current situation feel familiar is not just the decision itself, but the way it hangs over everything the team is trying to build. Oklahoma has seen midseason quarterback switches become part of the storyline before, and each time the move has brought its own ripple effect on performance and confidence. Mateers struggles have reopened that door, leaving the Sooners once again weighing whether to stay the course or reach for a familiar reset. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahomas Duke Brennan Still Leaves One Huge Frontcourt Question
Duke Brennan will stay on the floor for now, and that matters for an Oklahoma team still trying to sort out its frontcourt picture before the season gets rolling. A preliminary-injunction hearing on his eligibility was continued without a ruling, which means the temporary restraining order remains in place and keeps the center eligible to practice and take part in preseason scrimmages.
The next court date is set for October 20, with an October 13 oral argument in a related case also still ahead. For the Sooners, the short-term outcome is simple enough: Brennan can keep working with the team for at least a few more weeks, but the larger question around his status is still hanging out there. [Read more 🡒]