Preseason prediction season is finally in the rearview, and Oklahoma’s Week 1 opener brings the kind of setup that invites a little fun: a heavy favorite, a light underdog and a chance to guess how ugly things get before the night is over.
The Sooners open Year 5 under Brent Venables at 7 p.m. CT Friday against UTEP at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, and the expectation is about as clear as it gets. Oklahoma should roll through what figures to be the weakest opponent on its schedule, with the bigger question being how quickly the game gets out of hand and which Sooners make the first loud statement of 2026.
John Mateer is the obvious place to start. The quarterback already showed in his first four games as a Sooner last season that he can hit both ends of the scoreboard, and his debut against FCS Illinois State was the full package: three passing touchdowns, one rushing score and 392 passing yards, which broke Baker Mayfield’s record for most passing yards in an OU debut.
With more weapons around him now and a bigger, stronger frame, Mateer should be even tougher to corral. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle won’t overwork him, but there should still be enough designed movement and natural scrambling for Mateer to score through the air and on the ground.
If Oklahoma really wants to come out swinging, his legs could produce the first points of the season.
Another big-play name to watch is Isaiah Sategna III. The returning top receiver looks like the kind of player who can turn a routine catch into a chunk gain in a hurry, and this matchup sets him up for at least one reception of 40 yards or more.
Oklahoma won’t need to manufacture much for that to happen. A short throw over the middle could be all it takes if Sategna gets a crease, and UTEP’s defense isn’t built to keep up if he gets into the open field.
The Sooners need more explosive plays in 2026, and this is the sort of night that should give them one.
There’s also a chance for Elijah Thomas to make his first real imprint. After two offseasons of buzz, the receiver is in line for a bigger role with Parker Livingstone expected to be unavailable while in concussion protocol since last week.
Thomas may not outproduce Sategna or Virginia transfer Trell Harris, but he should get plenty of snaps and enough opportunities to show why people have been talking about him. In a game that could turn into a runaway, that means extra chances for a first career touchdown, possibly from Whitt Newbauer or Bowe Bentley late.
As for the final number, the pick here is Oklahoma 55, UTEP 3. The Sooners should handle business comfortably, with health and clean execution more important than style points before next week’s trip to No.
16 Michigan. Venables’ defense did not allow a Group of 6 opponent or lower to score last season, and that streak should keep rolling.
On the other side, Oklahoma’s offense looks set to be far more productive than it was a year ago.
The only real threat to a cover against the 41.5-point spread, per FanDuel, is that Oklahoma could back off early once the outcome is settled and start thinking about the Wolverines.
In Other News...
Oklahoma Just Got Dragged Into An SEC Fight Fans Need To See
A federal judges preliminary injunction has suddenly put roster rules back at the center of the college football conversation, and the SEC is not happy about it. The ruling blocks conferences from punishing teams simply for carrying former professional players, which opened the door for LSU to add former NFL players DaeQuan Wright and Zxavian Harris ahead of its season opener against Clemson.
The conference is opposing the decision and could appeal, while Louisiana officials have voiced support for the ruling, setting up a familiar kind of late-summer legal standoff with real football consequences. For Oklahoma and the rest of the SEC, it is one more reminder that the leagues path to opening weekend may still run through a courtroom before anyone gets to the field. [Read more 🡒]
Sooners Face A Looming 2026 Problem In Ben Arbuckles Offense
Ben Arbuckles first Oklahoma offense offered enough clues this fall to make the long view worth taking seriously. A look at his play-by-play tendencies, compared with what he ran at Washington State in 2024 and then with John Mateer directing the Sooners in 2025, shows an offense that leaned more heavily on the pass in key spots, especially on third down, while the ground game never gave it much balance. When the run game isnt threatening, the sequencing gets easier to read, and the data from this season suggested Oklahoma spent too much time in that exact trap.
The bigger concern is what that means when the Sooners eventually move past Mateer and into 2026. Arbuckles scheme still has the shape of something dangerous, but the numbers point to fewer explosive passing plays than he produced before, dropping from 35% to 25% in the comparison the article examined. If the running game remains ineffective, the offense could become increasingly predictable at the very moment Oklahoma needs it to stay ahead of defenses that will have a full year of tape on how Arbuckle wants to build drives. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma May Be Closer To Another Proven Defensive Line Boost
Oklahomas defensive line for 2026 may be gaining another proven piece, with former Boise State tackle Braxton Fely cleared by a Cleveland County District Court order to enter the transfer portal and potentially suit up for the Sooners next season. Fely spent four seasons at Boise State and finished with back-to-back All-Mountain West Second Team nods in 2024 and 2025, which makes him the kind of experienced interior presence Oklahoma has been looking to stack around its returning talent.
Braxton Felys situation also adds another layer to a defensive front that already looks like one of the more promising parts of Oklahomas roster outlook. The Sooners were already expecting a strong 2026 line, and Felys availability now comes alongside the possibility of fifth-year lineman Danny Saili, who is dealing with eligibility issues, giving Oklahoma a chance to deepen a unit that could shape the defense for next season. [Read more 🡒]