A 13.5-point spread against Georgia might have sounded outrageous not long ago. For Oklahoma, though, the number almost feels generous.
FanDuel has the Sooners as a 13.5-point underdog for Saturday’s SEC opener in Athens, and the line opened at 14.5. That kind of margin between two SEC powers would usually raise eyebrows. In this case, it mostly reflects one simple truth: Oklahoma has not shown nearly enough offense to suggest it can keep pace.
The Sooners are coming off a narrow 14-6 win over New Mexico at home, while Georgia rolled Arkansas 45-17 in Fayetteville to open SEC play. That gap in recent form only sharpens the contrast heading into a matchup that already looked steep for OU.
Over three games, Oklahoma is averaging 25 points per game, which ranks 99th in the FBS and second-to-last in the SEC, ahead of only Arkansas. That number is helped by the 51-0 win over UTEP in Week 1. Strip that away, and the picture gets worse fast.
Over the last two games, the Sooners are averaging just 12 points per contest, including a 17-10 road loss to Michigan. They have leaned on explosive plays, but they have not even snapped the ball inside the red zone in two weeks.
That is why the betting line, even at 13.5, still looks like it might be asking too much of Oklahoma. Georgia’s defense has been excellent, ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense and allowing 211.3 yards and 13.3 points per game. Oklahoma’s offense has not shown the kind of consistency needed to make that defense uncomfortable.
The Sooners do have one of the best defenses in the country. They rank fourth in scoring defense and are allowing just 7.7 points per game. But that strength only goes so far when the offense cannot carry its end of the bargain.
Georgia’s offense has been humming, even against weaker competition, at 59.3 points per game, best in the FBS. So while Oklahoma’s defense may be able to make this a lower-scoring game than usual for the Bulldogs, the Sooners still have to find enough offense to matter.
And that’s the part that makes the spread feel too small. Georgia should be able to get past 14 points on this OU defense. The same can’t be said for Ben Arbuckle’s offense.
Even with an explosive play or two, it is hard to picture Oklahoma’s defense holding Georgia under 21 points, especially with the Sooners likely without linebacker Kip Lewis and defensive tackle David Stone.
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