Oklahoma’s season outlook looks a little brighter after the Sooners handled UTEP 51-0 to open 2026, and ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has already nudged the numbers in OU’s favor.
The opener was one-sided from the jump. Oklahoma built a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and never let the Miners breathe, with the first-team offense scoring on eight straight drives with John Mateer at quarterback. The run game did its part too, especially with Lloyd Avant on the field, as the Sooners piled up 170 rushing yards.
Now comes the real test. Oklahoma heads to Michigan in Week 2, and that stretch gets cramped fast: from Sept. 12 through the SEC home opener against Kentucky on Oct. 17, the Sooners will play only one home game, the Sept. 19 meeting with New Mexico.
ESPN Analytics has updated the rest of the schedule, and the Michigan trip is the biggest swing so far. Oklahoma’s win probability there jumped to 64.4%, up from 47.8%. The Sooners are also projected to beat New Mexico, with that number down from 94.9%, and they’re given a 26.1% chance at Georgia on Sept. 26, up from 23%.
The Cotton Bowl game against Texas on Oct. 10 stays at 24.4%, while the Kentucky matchup on Oct. 17 sits at 86.7%, up slightly from 86.3%. After that, ESPN’s model has Oklahoma favored at Mississippi State, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri, while Florida is the closest call left on the board at 53.1%.
Here’s how the rest of the projections shake out:
Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners
Projected running record: 1-0
Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines
Sooners Win Probability: 64.4% (Up from 47.8%)
Projected running record: 2-0
Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos
Sooners Win Probability: (Down from 94.9%)
Projected running record: 3-0
Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs
Sooners Win Probability: 26.1% (Up from 23%)
Projected running record: 3-1
Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
Sooners Win Probability: 24.4% (No Change)
Projected running record: 3-2
Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Sooners Win Probability: 86.7% (Up from 86.3%)
Projected running record: 4-2
Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 73.4% (Down from 80.2%)
Projected running record: 5-2
Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 68.4% (Down from 75.1%)
Projected running record: 6-2
Nov. 7 at Florida Gators
Sooners Win Probability: 53.1% (Down from 54.6%)
Projected running record: 7-2
Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 67.7% (Up from 62.3%)
Projected running record: 8-2
Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Sooners Win Probability: 50.4% (Up from 49.9%)
Projected running record: 9-2
Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers
Sooners Win Probability: 69.9% (Up from 60.3%)
Projected running record: 10-2
Before the season, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor had Oklahoma at 8-4 and out of the College Football Playoff picture. Since then, the Michigan game and, by a sliver, Texas A&M have swung toward the Sooners.
OU’s Week 1 performance gave the computers something to like, especially on offense, which had been the biggest question all offseason. The real answer comes quickly now. Michigan is the first major checkpoint, and if Oklahoma leaves Ann Arbor with a win, the path starts to look a lot more interesting.
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Now comes a much more personal matchup. Sullivan is getting ready to face Michigan, the program he transferred from, and the Sooners will be watching to see how he handles a game that carries more meaning than the average nonconference date. He has been backing up at middle linebacker while fitting smoothly into Oklahomas defense, but this one gives him a chance to show how far he has come since leaving Ann Arbor. [Read more 🡒]