Oklahoma’s place in ESPN’s latest College Football Playoff projection comes with a warning label.
After last season’s playoff run and a 51-0 season-opening win over the University of Texas at El Paso Miners, the Sooners still landed at No. 12 in Heather Dinich’s projected final ranking. That spot would leave Oklahoma just outside the field. Dinich, though, has Boise State as the highest-rated Group of Six champion and still outside the top 12, which would send the Broncos into the playoff ahead of the Sooners.
Dinich said she needs to see more before pushing Oklahoma any higher.
"Oklahoma travels to Michigan on Saturday, and ESPN's FPI gives the Sooners a 64.3% chance to win," Dinich wrote." It's as close to a must-win situation as there can be in Week 2 because Oklahoma will need some margin for error with Georgia and Texas looming in two of the next three weeks.
ESPN's FPI projects OU will lose both of those games. The Sooners can't have three losses before the rankings even begin and be in the playoff conversation."
That stretch is the real test. Oklahoma gets New Mexico after Michigan, then heads to Georgia on Sept. 26 and later meets Texas on Oct.
- Dinich has both the Bulldogs and Longhorns in the CFP, and ESPN’s FPI projects the Sooners to lose both of those games.
That’s why the No. 12 prediction should be read as a snapshot, not a final verdict. Oklahoma has a chance to change the picture immediately in Ann Arbor on Saturday.
A win there would give the Sooners the résumé bump Dinich wants and buy them some breathing room before Georgia and Texas show up. If Oklahoma gets through that run with just one loss, or none at all, leaving the Sooners out of the playoff conversation gets a lot harder.
In Other News...
Oklahoma Faces One Big O-Line Concern Going Into Michigan
Oklahomas offensive line left the season opener with more questions than answers, even before the Sooners got a full read on how the group will hold up against a far stiffer test. Starter Jake Maikkula and Ryan Fodje were already sidelined, and Michael Fasusi left early with a shoulder injury, forcing the staff to piece together protection on the fly while the offense worked through the game.
There is at least some optimism going into Week 2, with Maikkula and Fodje expected back for Michigan. Fasusi is the name to watch, though, because his status is still uncertain and that leaves one important spot in limbo as Oklahoma prepares for a defense that will make any weakness up front hard to hide. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle sounded confident the unit can adjust, but the Sooners would clearly prefer to arrive in Ann Arbor with the line closer to full strength. [Read more 🡒]
Brent Venables Defends What Makes Oklahoma Different From Everyone Else
Scheduling elite nonconference games has become part of the Oklahoma identity, and Brent Venables made it clear he does not see that as a coincidence. With the Sooners fresh off a matchup with Michigan, the head coach pointed to the value of opening the season against top programs, saying those games help prepare his team while also giving recruits a clear picture of the standard in Norman.
Venables also acknowledged the college football landscape could eventually make those kinds of matchups less common if playoff structures change. Even so, he framed them as a differentiator for Oklahoma, one of the few programs willing to test itself early against the sports best and live with the results because of what it means long term. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahomas New Portal Defenders Could Spark A Real 2026 Debate
Oklahoma kept working the transfer portal for defense, and the latest wave of additions has a distinctly future-facing feel. The Sooners brought in defensive tackles Danny Saili and Braxton Fely, linebacker Jaydon Southard and cornerback DYoni Hill, all players who could become part of the conversation for the 2026 roster as the staff keeps building out depth and competition on that side of the ball.
What makes the group more intriguing is the timing. Because of a temporary restraining order, the four newcomers are eligible to play in 2026, giving Oklahoma a chance to evaluate how their previous experience translates once they arrive in Norman. For a defense that always has spots to win and roles to settle, these are the kinds of portal moves that can quietly shape a depth chart long before the season actually gets here. [Read more 🡒]