The Oklahoma Sooners are no longer being talked about as a playoff team after dropping a 21-13 decision to Kentucky in Norman last week. At 3-3 halfway through the season, the path back to the College Football Playoff is now a steep one, and it likely runs through an SEC Championship Game appearance that doesn’t look very realistic right now.
That’s the reality in a 12-team playoff world. In the two seasons of the format so far, only two three-loss teams have made the field.
Clemson got in at 10-3 in 2024 by winning the ACC title game and claiming the automatic berth, while Alabama was pushed out as a three-loss at-large team. The Tide only would have had a real shot if SMU had beaten Clemson.
A year later, Alabama got back into the playoff with three losses anyway, thanks to not being penalized for a loss to Georgia in the SEC title game. In both cases, the three-loss team reached its conference championship game, and that’s the kind of path Oklahoma would need now.
For the Sooners, that kind of surge just doesn’t look likely with the SEC schedule still ahead. So the conversation shifts to something far more ordinary: bowl season. Oklahoma has been to a bowl in 27 straight seasons, with the last miss coming in 1998, the final year of the John Blake era before Bob Stoops arrived.
The projections are split. USA TODAY Sports’ Erick Smith has Oklahoma in the Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona of the Big 12.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach does not have the Sooners making a bowl at all. Kyle Bonagura projects Oklahoma in the Las Vegas Bowl against USC from the Big Ten.
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer, though, keeps the streak alive and sends Oklahoma to the Liberty Bowl.
That Liberty Bowl projection would put the Sooners in Memphis, Tennessee, on January 2nd against Kansas State out of the Big 12.
Under the SEC’s bowl structure, the playoff teams are removed from the remaining selection process. The Citrus Bowl gets the top SEC team not in the playoff.
After that comes a group of six bowls - the Gator Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Music City Bowl, ReliaQuest Bowl and Texas Bowl - that work with the conference and school officials to sort out matchups. Two more games, the Birmingham Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl, then choose from any remaining eligible SEC teams.
If Oklahoma landed in the Las Vegas Bowl, it could face USC or Arizona, both of whom would still be filling a former Pac-12 slot even though they now sit in the Big Ten or Big 12. The SEC and Big Ten alternate the Las Vegas Bowl assignment each year, with the SEC taking even years.
The Duke’s Mayo Bowl follows the same kind of rotation, with the SEC getting it in odd years and the Big Ten in even years. The 10 former Pac-12 teams remain eligible for Pac-12-affiliated bowls, along with the teams that are still in the Pac-12.
Kansas State would bring a familiar name if that Liberty Bowl projection holds. Oklahoma and Kansas State spent decades as conference rivals in the Big Eight and Big 12, and the Sooners lead the all-time series 77-22-4 over 103 meetings.
Since 1999, Oklahoma has a 14-6 edge. The programs have also met in two Big 12 Championship Games, with Oklahoma winning in 2000 and Kansas State winning in 2003, the only time the Sooners lost in the Big 12 title game.
They also split the 2012 conference title. Kansas State is also Brent Venables’ alma mater, and the Oklahoma head coach both played and coached there.
A Liberty Bowl trip isn’t where Oklahoma wanted the season to go, but it’s where the team is headed in some projections if it can’t turn things around. With half the season left, the Sooners still have time to change the conversation, but they’ll need to get moving fast if they want to salvage Venables’ fifth season.
In Other News...
Oklahomas Next QB Storyline Is Starting To Feel More Urgent
With seven games left in the season, Oklahomas quarterback picture is settled for now, but the long-term conversation is already getting louder. Head coach Ben Arbuckle said John Mateer remains the starter, a decision that reflects where the Sooners are right now as they try to keep the season moving in the right direction. Behind him, Whit Newbauer and Bowe Bentley are still being evaluated, and Bentley in particular continues to draw attention as a name with real promise for the future.
Arbuckles comments made clear that the staff is balancing two timelines at once. Mateer is still the option that gives Oklahoma the best chance to win today, while Bentleys development is being handled with an eye toward what comes next. For a program always under the microscope at quarterback, that leaves the Sooners in a familiar spot, with the present settled enough and the future still taking shape behind it. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma May Finally Have The Backfield Spark It Desperately Needed
Tory Blaylocks role in Oklahomas offense has been easier to talk about than to see this season, with the sophomore running back spending much of 2026 working back from an early injury. But in the recent game against Kentucky, he finally looked closer to the player the Sooners have been waiting on, handling a season-high seven carries and giving a ground game that has been searching for a rhythm a little more life.
For Oklahoma, the timing matters. The run game has been bogged down by injuries along the offensive line, leaving the Sooners short on consistency and too often asking the passing game to carry the burden. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle has been encouraged by Blaylocks return to form, and if that progress holds, it could give Oklahoma a much-needed spark in an area that has been difficult to solve. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahomas Red-Zone Problem Is Becoming A Serious Season-Long Concern
Oklahomas offense has been searching for consistency for most of the season, and the issue is becoming especially hard to ignore once the Sooners cross into scoring range. Over the last five games, the unit has managed just six offensive touchdowns, and it still has not put up multiple touchdowns against a Power Four opponent. For an offense built to create pressure on defenses, the bigger problem has been turning movement into points.
The numbers inside the 20-yard line are even more telling. Oklahoma has had only 13 red-zone opportunities, the fewest of any Power Four team, and has converted touchdowns on just 46.2 percent of those chances, a mark that ranks eighth worst nationally. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and tight end Hayden Hansen have both acknowledged the struggle to finish drives, and for a team trying to climb out of an uneven offensive stretch, red-zone execution has turned into a concern that cannot be brushed aside. [Read more 🡒]