Oklahoma’s path to keeping its bowl streak alive is still there, but it’s getting narrow in a hurry.
The Sooners have reached the postseason every year since 1999, a run that covers 27 straight seasons of bowl games or College Football Playoff appearances. This year, though, they’re sitting at 4-4 with Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri still ahead. To extend that streak, OU has to find two more wins and get to six.
That’s easier said than done after what happened against South Carolina. Oklahoma’s 42-25 loss to the Gamecocks on Saturday was ugly enough that the program moved on from offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Monday.
The numbers around the offense explain why. The Sooners are 108th nationally in scoring offense and 111th in total offense, and quarterback John Mateer has already turned it over nine times in eight games.
As a team, Oklahoma is tied for 130th in FBS with 15 turnovers.
The defense, usually the backbone, took a hit too. Against South Carolina, Oklahoma gave up 521 offensive yards and missed 27 tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. That performance was the low point of the season, and if the Sooners repeat it, the rest of the schedule could get away from them fast.
Still, there’s a version of this season where Oklahoma gets rolling just enough to finish 8-4. The offense has shown flashes in spots, including against Mississippi State, Texas and Kentucky, and the Sooners did put together a more complete outing against Mississippi State on Oct. 24, just two weeks after beating No.
1 Texas. The problem is consistency.
Four more quality defenses are waiting, and that makes it tough to trust the offense to hold up week after week.
The biggest obstacle is Ole Miss. The Rebels are No. 10 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings and will bring dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss to Norman on Nov.
- Chambliss threw for 315 yards and a touchdown and ran for 53 yards in Ole Miss’ 34-26 win over Oklahoma last year.
Under new head coach Pete Golding, the Rebels’ offense has stayed dangerous, and if the Sooners didn’t take enough away from the South Carolina game against LaNorris Sellers, that matchup could turn rough in a hurry.
If Oklahoma somehow wins out, it would enter bowl season at 8-4. That kind of finish would likely send the Sooners to the Las Vegas Bowl or the ReliaQuest Bowl. But that feels like a long shot right now.
A more realistic range is somewhere between five and seven wins. ESPN Analytics gives Oklahoma win probabilities of 36% at No.
24 Florida, 29.4% against No. 10 Ole Miss, 51.3% against Texas A&M and 37.2% at No.
18 Missouri. By those numbers, the Sooners are projected to win only one of their final four games.
Texas A&M may be the most winnable of the bunch, even if the Aggies have had their own issues with offensive inconsistency and shaky quarterback play. But Oklahoma could just as easily drop that one if it shows up like it did against South Carolina.
The rest of the schedule is no picnic either. Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri are all ranked, and two of those games are on the road. Even so, ESPN’s projections still leave room for Oklahoma to grab a couple of wins.
If the Sooners finish with six or seven victories, they’ll still go bowling, just not to a glamorous destination. Possible landing spots include the Texas Bowl or the Music City Bowl. There’s also a chance they wind up in a bowl without an SEC tie-in, like the Liberty Bowl or the Birmingham Bowl, as OU did in 2024 when it lost to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl.
A 4-8 finish would be the program’s worst since 1997, when Oklahoma ended up in the same spot under John Blake. And at that point, the bowl streak would be over.
In Other News...
Oklahoma Gets A Needed Boost But Saturday Questions Still Linger
Oklahoma got a small but meaningful lift heading into the weekend with cornerback Eli Bowen and tight end Rocky Beers cleared off the injury report and available for the game against Florida. In a week when the availability list has been a moving target, getting those two back gives the Sooners a little more flexibility on both sides of the ball as they try to settle in before kickoff.
The bigger concern is what still remains unresolved. Wide receiver Elijah Thomas and defensive end Kenny Ozawalu are among the players listed as questionable, while eight others have already been ruled out and one more is doubtful, leaving Oklahoma with several late decisions still hanging over Saturday. The update helps, but it also underscores how much the Sooners are still managing as they head into a game where depth could matter just as much as the game plan. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Gets A Needed Boost But One Florida Concern Remains
The Sooners are getting some reinforcements at a useful time, with several players set to return to the lineup for the upcoming game against Florida. Eli Bowen, Jake Maikkula, Jer'Michael Carter and Rocky Beers are all back in the mix, which should help Oklahoma add some much-needed depth as it tries to steady itself for a tricky SEC matchup.
Still, the availability report is not all encouraging. Ryan Fodje, Cole Sullivan and Jacobe Johnson have already been ruled out, and Peyton Bowen remains questionable, leaving one important spot in particular still worth watching as kickoff approaches. For Oklahoma, the returns are welcome, but there is still at least one Florida-related concern hanging over the week. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Football Fans Wont Believe How One Playoff Spot Was Decided
When three Oklahoma high school football teams finished tied for third in District A-II-3, there was no film room, no points-differential debate and no last-second appeal left to sort it out. Liberty, Central Sallisaw and Gore had run through every available tiebreaker, and with only four playoff spots in the district, the decision came down to a coin toss at Catfish Round Up near Seminole.
Liberty and Central Sallisaw came out on top and moved on, while Gore was left out in the cold on the sports most old-school kind of margin. It is the sort of finish that reminds you just how thin the line can be in high school football, where a whole season can hinge on a flip once the usual math has been exhausted. [Read more 🡒]