The Oklahoma Sooners are staring at a postseason picture that looks bleak enough to make even a bowl game feel like a stretch.
At 3-3 halfway through the season, OU has already watched its College Football Playoff hopes crumble. ESPN’s FPI still gives the Sooners a 2% shot at making the CFP, but that number is closer to a formality than a real path. Even if the bracket had already expanded to 24 teams, a bowl game would still likely be the only postseason lifeline for this team.
There’s just one problem: with six games left, Oklahoma still needs three more wins to get bowl-eligible. The remaining schedule is no picnic, either - at Mississippi State, vs.
South Carolina, at Florida, vs. Ole Miss, vs.
Texas A&M, and at Missouri.
And that’s where the conversation gets uncomfortable. Some national projections don’t even have the Sooners winning enough to reach a bowl, which would be a brutal first for the program since 1998. That was the last time OU missed a bowl, back when Brent Venables was still a linebackers coach at Kansas State.
For the projections that do send Oklahoma bowling, the list starts with a familiar destination and a few awkward possible opponents.
Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer has OU in the Liberty Bowl against Kansas State on Saturday, Jan. 2.
That would send the Sooners to Memphis, Tennessee, for a trip plenty of Sooner fans would rather skip. The hook here is obvious: Venables would face his alma mater, where he played linebacker for Bill Snyder in 1991-92 after transferring from Garden City Community College.
Tyler Markley also has Oklahoma in the Liberty Bowl, this time against TCU on Saturday, Jan. 2.
There’s not much glamour to that one. TCU is sitting at 3-3, and this is the kind of matchup OU was supposed to leave behind after moving to the SEC.
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan has the Sooners headed to the Liberty Bowl again, this time against West Virginia on Saturday, Jan. 2.
That one comes with a messy twist: Michael Hawkins Jr., once John Mateer’s backup at Oklahoma, has turned into a star for the Mountaineers. For a fan base already worn down by the season, seeing Hawkins shine against the Sooners would be a rough final note, especially with Oklahoma likely short-handed by opt-outs.
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura has a different destination in mind: the Las Vegas Bowl against USC on Thursday, Dec. 31.
On paper, that’s the one with the loudest storyline. The idea of Oklahoma ending the season by beating Lincoln Riley would be a satisfying finish.
The opposite would be a tough pill to swallow.
This projection also comes with an asterisk, because Riley probably wouldn’t still be coaching USC if the Trojans keep missing expectations. Venables, meanwhile, would still be in place thanks to the two-year contract extension he signed, which raised his buyout to $51.67 million.
Of all the projections, this one has generated the most attention. It would also bring back memories of Venables’ second season, when OU finished 10-2 and lost to Arizona 38-24 in the Alamo Bowl. That game turned into a warning sign, with Jackson Arnold throwing three interceptions and Seth Littrell calling plays.
If Oklahoma ends up in a similar spot now, only in a lesser bowl, it would say plenty about where the program stands three years later.
In Other News...
Oklahoma's Biggest Problem Heading Into Mississippi State Is Hard To Ignore
Oklahoma heads into its meeting with Mississippi State still trying to find a steadier gear on offense, and the concerns are hard to miss. John Mateer has flashed the kind of playmaking that can tilt a game, but the turnovers have been part of the package, and the Sooners have also had to lean on Avant to help keep the ground game moving when the passing attack bogs down.
Mississippi State brings its own uncertainty, starting with the quarterback situation, which adds another layer to a matchup already shaped by defenses on both sides. The Sooners will need to sort out their own ball security issues before they can worry much about the Bulldogs, because the margin for error shrinks fast when one offense is still searching for consistency and the other side is capable of making the game messy. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Fans Wont Like Why Ryan Fodje Stayed In Against Kentucky
Late in Oklahomas home loss to Kentucky, starting left tackle Ryan Fodje went down with a right ankle injury in the closing minutes of the third quarter and briefly headed to the sideline for examination. He came back with the ankle heavily taped, a sequence that mattered because the Sooners offense was already losing its grip on the game and needed stability in the worst possible spot.
Brent Venables said the call to put Fodje back in came with input from the training staff and from Fodje himself, a detail Oklahoma fans probably will not love given how the rest of the night unfolded. After he returned, the offense kept sputtering, with the protection issues showing up in the form of sacks and interceptions, leaving the injury decision as one more thing the Sooners will have to sort through after an ugly home result. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Faces One Big Offensive Concern Entering Mississippi State
Brent Venables missed Tuesdays press conference because of flu-like symptoms, leaving defensive tackles coach Todd Bates to field questions as Oklahoma turned the page toward Mississippi State. The conversation quickly settled on the offense, where the Sooners are still trying to get a steadier rhythm while the defense continues to hold up at a national level.
Ryan Fodjes injury status was part of the discussion, along with the broader issues on offense and the encouraging signs from running back Tory Blaylock as he works back from an early-season injury. For Oklahoma, the formula is clear enough: the defense is doing its part, but the offense still has to answer the biggest question hanging over this stretch of the schedule. [Read more 🡒]