For Oklahoma to have any real shot at stunning No. 1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday, the Sooners will need things to go right in a hurry. Three players, more than anyone else, sit right at the center of that equation.
Start up front, where Ryan Fodje is set to make another start at left tackle with Michael Fasusi sidelined for the fourth straight game. That means Fodje gets the toughest assignment on the field: spending most of the afternoon across from edge rusher Colin Simmons, who ranks second in the country with 7.5 sacks this season and posted 5.5 in his latest outing against Tennessee.
If Simmons is allowed to wreck the pocket, Oklahoma’s offense could unravel fast. John Mateer will be forced into hurried throws, the kind that have fueled the Sooners’ turnover issues all season, and those mistakes would almost certainly wipe out what little margin of error OU has in this game. But if Fodje holds his own against what would amount to a future first-round draft pick, then the Sooners at least give themselves a fighting chance to let the rest of the offense breathe.
That brings everything back to Mateer, because the ball security question may decide the whole thing. Oklahoma has coughed it up 10 times this season, the worst turnover margin among all Power 4 teams, and Mateer has been directly responsible for six of those giveaways. The problem isn’t just the volume; it’s when they happen, with the mistakes often arriving at the worst possible moment and handing points to the other side.
The numbers behind that trend are hard to ignore. In 16 games as OU’s QB1 over the past two seasons, Mateer has gone turnover-free only five times, and the Sooners are 5-0 in those games. When John Mateer is turnover-free, Oklahoma wins by an average of 15 points (5-game sample).
With only one turnover, Oklahoma wins by an average of 11 points (7-game sample).
With 2+ turnovers, Oklahoma loses by an average of 8 points (4-game sample). pic.twitter.com/0MEOB3PCNP
- The Main Line (@TheMainLinePod) October 6, 2026
Mateer doesn’t need to look like a Heisman Trophy contender for Oklahoma to pull off something special. He just has to stay out of the defense’s way.
And if the Sooners are going to actually put points on the board in the Cotton Bowl, Isaiah Sategna looks like their best bet to end a rough drought. Oklahoma has not reached the end zone there in two years, and Sategna’s speed gives them a real chance to change that.
Texas has a strong defense, but there are still openings in the secondary, and Sategna has the kind of burst that can punish them. He also gives Mateer a quick outlet, which matters if the pass rush starts closing in. With Sategna turning short touches into big gains, Oklahoma does not need a long-developing play to create danger.
If the Sooners can pair that with a turnover or a defensive score, the upset conversation gets a lot more real. If Sategna breaks loose for a touchdown too, Sooner Nation will have every reason to start believing.
In Other News...
Sooners Get Crucial Red River Boost But One Concern Still Looms
Oklahoma got a needed lift on the availability front before its Red River Rivalry meeting with Texas, with four players shifting from questionable to probable on the updated report. The biggest near-term help comes on defense, where Michael Boganowski and Cole Sullivan are expected back, giving the Sooners a little more depth and flexibility as they brace for one of the seasons most important games.
The offensive line, though, still carries an obvious concern. Starting left tackle Michael Fasusi remains doubtful, and that leaves a major question hanging over a unit that will need to hold up against Texas with several others already ruled out, including Fred Hinton, Taylor Heim, Trell Harris, Xavier Robinson, and Jacobe Johnson. For Oklahoma, the return of a few key defenders helps, but the availability picture is still far from clean where it matters most. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma's Brent Venables Debate Comes With A Massive Catch
Brent Venables remains a central talking point in Norman as Oklahoma works through a 2-2 start to the 2026 season, and the conversation is shaped as much by his contract as by the record. Venables signed a six-year extension in August 2026 that keeps him under contract through the 2031 season, with an annual salary of $10.5 million, a deal that underscores how heavily the Sooners are invested in the direction of the program.
Venables is now 34-22 overall at Oklahoma, a run that includes two losing seasons and two 10-win seasons, which helps explain why the debate around his future can feel so complicated. The real catch is financial: his buyout is believed to sit somewhere in the $55 million to $60 million range, though the exact figure is not clear, making any serious discussion about change a much bigger decision than a simple football judgment. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahomas Upset Hopes Rest On One Brutal Red River Reality
Oklahoma heads into the Red River showdown with Texas carrying the kind of offensive profile that can make even a strong defense feel like it's living on a razor's edge. John Mateer's turnovers have been a recurring issue, and the Sooners' rushing attack has not given him much relief, leaving the offense too dependent on a cleaner passing day than it's shown it can always deliver. Against the top-ranked Longhorns, that kind of inconsistency looms especially large.
The good news for Oklahoma is that the defense has been good enough to keep the Sooners in games and give them a fighting chance if the offense can simply avoid self-inflicted mistakes. The question is whether that support holds up against a Texas team that can punish slow starts and wasted possessions, especially if player availability tilts the matchup further in either direction. For Oklahoma, the path to an upset is there in theory, but it depends on overcoming one brutal reality it has struggled with all season. [Read more 🡒]