Oklahoma’s 2026 season has the kind of schedule that can make a team look like a contender one month and a wreck the next.
That’s the read Josh Pate gave when he sized up the Sooners, who are coming off their first College Football Playoff appearance under Brent Venables. Venables also locked in a new two-year contract extension in August that runs through January 2032, but the bigger storyline may be what happens once the games start stacking up.
Pate’s view was simple: Oklahoma’s path is brutal enough to swing wildly in either direction. He said the Sooners could be good enough to chase an SEC crown, but he also warned that they could be in trouble by the middle of October because of how the calendar sets up.
"They could win the SEC," Pate said. "They could also be cooked by mid-October because that's the way their schedule is set up, with that trip to Michigan in Week 2 and then a trip to Georgia a couple of weeks later, and then they got the Red River shootout on October 10th."
That stretch is the centerpiece of the concern. Oklahoma goes to Michigan in Week 2 for a non-conference game, then heads to Georgia the next month to begin SEC play, and later meets Texas in the Red River Rivalry on October 10. Pate said that run will tell the story of the season.
He landed on a 9-3 record for Oklahoma, though he admitted he briefly talked himself into a stronger finish.
"I gave serious consideration to 10 and two," Pate said. "The only thing that backed me off of that is I do believe that the ground game will be much improved. I believe, but I want to verify."
Pate also emphasized how little margin for error the Sooners have early. He rattled off a group of games that includes Michigan, Georgia, Texas, Florida and Texas A&M, then pointed out how much of that slate comes away from Norman.
"Michigan, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Texas A&M," Pate said. "Four of the five games I just listed are away from home.
One of them is a neutral site. Three of them are on the road.
That's a tough slate, man."
The concern around Oklahoma’s start isn’t new. Earlier this month, the Sooners were identified as a team that could slip out of the AP Top 25 if things go sideways quickly.
At quarterback, John Mateer is back for a fourth collegiate season after a 2025 run that began with Heisman buzz before a hand injury changed the trajectory. Mateer said the offense has taken a step forward after a full year inside the SEC.
"I think we've all developed in the right way," Mateer said. "One year in the SEC, you just learn how important everything is and all the little details. I think that's the biggest change."
Venables was equally direct when talking about Mateer after Oklahoma’s playoff loss to Alabama last season.
"He's a warrior," Venables said. "He's got everything that you want in a competitor, in a leader, in a quarterback."
And while the schedule will get most of the attention, Oklahoma’s new extension for Venables comes with backing from the top. Athletic director Roger Denny pointed to the coach’s ability to build the program as the reason for the deal.
"Coach Venables is elite at building culture, not just in the locker room, but throughout the entire program," Denny said. "Our players are drawn to him, they trust him, they believe in him."
Oklahoma opens the season at home against UTEP on September 5.
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