The numbers have not been kind to Oklahoma after three games, but ESPN’s latest projections still leave the Sooners with a path that can be traced through the rest of the schedule.
Oklahoma is 2-1 after opening with a 51-0 win over UTEP, then falling 17-10 at Michigan and beating New Mexico 14-6. That start has put the spotlight squarely on the offense, which has not produced the kind of output many expected. The defense has kept the season from slipping, but the margin for error is already thin as the Sooners head into SEC play.
That next step is a major one: a trip to Athens to face No. 2 Georgia on Sept.
- ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Oklahoma a 16.6% chance to win, down from 19.6%, and projects the Sooners at 2-2 afterward.
The Bulldogs have been extremely difficult to beat at home, with just two losses there since 2017, Kirby Smart’s second year in charge.
From there, ESPN’s updated game-by-game outlook gives Oklahoma a mixed board of probabilities the rest of the way. The Sooners are listed at 23.7% to beat Texas in the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 10, up from 21.8%, with a projected record of 2-3. Against Kentucky on Oct. 17, they’re at 79%, down from 88%, and projected to move to 3-3.
The forecast tightens again on Oct. 24 at Mississippi State, where ESPN now gives Oklahoma a 50.7% chance, down from 60.1%, while still picking the Sooners to win and move to 4-3. A week later, Oklahoma is at 71.5% against South Carolina on Oct. 31, up from 67.8%, with a projected 5-3 mark.
The November stretch carries plenty of uncertainty. ESPN has Florida as the predicted winner on Nov. 7, with Oklahoma’s win probability sitting at 42.7%, down from 46.4%, which would leave the Sooners at 5-4. Ole Miss follows on Nov. 14, where Oklahoma’s chances are 54.1%, down from 64.4%, and the projection says 6-4.
The final two games tilt back toward Oklahoma. The Sooners are at 52.1% against Texas A&M on Nov. 21, up from 40.7%, with a projected 7-4 record. Then comes Missouri on Nov. 28, where Oklahoma’s win probability is 62%, up from 60.1%, and ESPN projects an 8-4 finish.
Right now, though, the bigger question is whether the offense can wake up before the schedule gets any tougher. The defense has kept Oklahoma alive. The next step is finding enough on offense to make the rest of those projections matter.
In Other News...
OUs Season May Hinge On One Choice Brent Venables Made
Oklahomas offense has been the central question around Brent Venables for a while now, and the programs recent moves make clear how much hinges on getting that side of the ball right. The Sooners have cycled through offensive coordinators Seth Littrell and Ben Arbuckle, while the defense has remained the steadier part of the team, keeping the larger discussion focused on whether the head coach had the right answer when he went searching for a reset.
Venables also had other offensive coordinator options to weigh in 2024, which only adds to the scrutiny of the choice he ultimately made. With the Sooners trying to avoid another season defined by offensive frustration, the long-term outlook now depends on whether this latest decision finally gives the program the balance it has been chasing. [Read more 🡒]
Venables Just Put Oklahomas Biggest Georgia Fear Into Focus
Brent Venables spent part of the buildup to Georgia doing what Oklahoma coaches have had to do all season: balancing respect for a loaded opponent with a hard look in the mirror. Georgias defense is the obvious headliner, but Venables also pointed to quarterback Gunnar Stockton as part of the challenge, a reminder that this matchup asks for more than just clean reads and a steady plan. For Oklahoma, the conversation quickly turns to the offense, where turnovers and shaky line play have too often put the Sooners in difficult spots.
Venables also said defensive lineman David Stone is uncertain because of a knee injury, though he sounded comfortable with the depth up front if the Sooners need to lean on it. The larger issue, as he framed it, is not just matching Georgia snap for snap but trimming away the self-inflicted errors that have made Oklahomas margin so thin. Against a team like this, the Sooners do not need a perfect night, but they probably need a much cleaner one. [Read more 🡒]
Georgias First SEC Clash With Oklahoma Carries One Intriguing Twist
No. 2 Georgia is set to host Oklahoma in the programs first regular-season meeting, a matchup that brings plenty of SEC familiarity and just enough unfamiliarity to make it interesting. Georgia is unbeaten at 3-0, Oklahoma comes in at 2-1, and both coaches spent the buildup acknowledging the other sides strengths, with Kirby Smart praising the Sooners defense and Brent Venables pointing to the challenge posed by Georgia senior quarterback Gunner Stockton.
For Oklahoma, the bigger question remains on its own side of the ball, where the offense has been searching for steadier production and quarterback John Mateer still needs to take a step forward. The Sooners could also be monitoring defensive tackle David Stone, whose availability is uncertain because of a knee injury, adding another layer to a game in which Oklahoma already faces a steep test against one of the SECs more complete teams. [Read more 🡒]