Week 6 has a few dogs worth barking at, and Nebraska is the one that jumps off the page. The Cornhuskers have quietly put together a strong statistical profile, sitting 11th in college football in adjusted EPA per play and fourth in net success rate through five weeks.
The record may not have the market fully sold yet, mostly because of the schedule they’ve faced, but Nebraska has still cleared 31 points in every game so far. Now it gets Indiana, a team that has already flashed some warning signs, including barely escaping Northwestern two weeks ago.
That’s enough to make Nebraska a live outright upset pick against the defending national champions.
The same logic points to Oklahoma as another team worth a swing. Texas and Oklahoma both bring elite defensive numbers into the matchup, which is why this one could turn into a slog.
In a low-scoring game, the margin gets thin fast, and all it takes is a couple turnovers, a few penalties, or one bad bounce to flip everything. Oklahoma has been especially stingy, leading the nation in opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate, and that gives the Sooners a real shot to wreck what Arch Manning has shown so far this season.
If the game stays tight and ugly, Oklahoma can absolutely be live for the upset.
Oregon is the third underdog angle, and this one comes down to a mismatch the Ducks may not be built to handle. UCLA checks in 14th in net adjusted EPA per play according to GameOnPaper.com, while Oregon is 17th, so the gap between the two teams is not as wide as the brand names might suggest.
The bigger problem for Oregon is what it’s been doing against the run. The Ducks rank 101st in opponent rush EPA and 81st in opponent rush success rate, which is a dangerous place to be when UCLA is averaging 7.0 yards per carry and ranks first in rush EPA and second in rush success rate.
That sets up UCLA as a dangerous outright play too.
In Other News...
Brent Venables Is Standing By Oklahoma's Embattled Play Caller
Ben Arbuckle has taken the heat for Oklahomas recent offensive struggles, and the noise around him has only grown louder after three straight underwhelming showings. Fans have not been shy about their frustration with the production, and the conversation has spilled beyond the usual game-day griping into something more pointed, with polls showing a sizable chunk of the fan base would rather see Lincoln Riley back in charge of the offense.
Brent Venables, though, is not feeding that fire. The Oklahoma coach is standing by his offensive coordinator and making it clear he believes Arbuckle can get the unit turned around, even as the criticism keeps building. For a program that expects better on that side of the ball, the question now is whether Venables confidence becomes a stabilizing force or just the latest test of patience for a restless fan base. [Read more 🡒]
Sooners Fans Need To Know This Before Red River Weekend
The annual Red River showdown returns Oct. 10 at Cotton Bowl Stadium during the State Fair of Texas, and for Sooners fans heading to Dallas, the game-day experience will start well before kickoff. With the fair grounds packed and the rivalry atmosphere in full force, Oklahoma supporters are being urged to arrive early and plan ahead, especially with parking and transportation expected to be part of the pregame challenge.
Safety and security will also be front and center, with a clear bag policy in effect and screening at entry points for everyone coming through. Fans making the trip can also expect the broader fair-week atmosphere to be in play, including live SEC Network shows during the fair, which should only add to the pageantry around one of the most recognizable games on the Sooners calendar. [Read more 🡒]
Red River Shootout Could Expose Whether Texas Is Really No. 1
The Red River Shootout arrives with Texas carrying the look of a heavyweight, at least on paper, and the SP+ model leans that way too. It projects the Longhorns to win 27-17 and gives them a 73 percent chance of leaving Dallas with another statement victory, which sets up a useful measuring stick for a Texas team trying to justify its top billing.
For Oklahoma, the game offers more than rivalry bragging rights. The Sooners have built their case around a defense that has quietly ranked among the nations best, and this matchup will tell a lot about how well that unit holds up against Arch Manning and a Texas offense still trying to prove it can consistently match elite expectations. If the Longhorns look the part again, the rest of the sport may have to keep treating them like the real No. 1. [Read more 🡒]