John Mateer Faces Defining Decision: Return to Oklahoma or Enter 2026 NFL Draft?
For Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, the clock is officially ticking. After the Sooners’ season came to a close with a 34-24 loss to Alabama in the first round of the College Football Playoff, Mateer now finds himself at a career crossroads - declare for the 2026 NFL Draft or return to Norman for one more run.
Right now, he’s not tipping his hand.
“Yeah, I haven’t really thought about it yet,” Mateer said following the loss. “I’m pretty sure I’ll take some time and weigh all the options, and we’ll see.”
And that’s fair. This isn’t just a football decision - it’s a career-defining one.
For Mateer, it’s about more than just the numbers or the wins and losses. It’s about timing, health, and readiness for the next level.
A Tale of Two Seasons
Mateer transferred to Oklahoma from Washington State with plenty of buzz, and for good reason. Just a year ago, he lit up the college football world with 44 total touchdowns and looked every bit the part of a rising NFL prospect. But this season didn’t follow the same script.
In 12 games with the Sooners, Mateer completed 62.2% of his passes for 2,885 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Those numbers tell part of the story, but the turning point came early - in Week 4 - when he broke the thumb on his throwing hand.
He finished that game, had surgery, and missed just one week before returning to the field. Gritty?
Absolutely. But the injury clearly lingered, and his play reflected it.
Even before the thumb injury, there were signs of inconsistency. Mateer’s decision-making was shaky at times, and errant throws crept into his game - mistakes that early-season opponents couldn’t capitalize on but top-tier defenses like Alabama’s certainly did. The injury only amplified those issues.
Draft Stock in Flux
Despite the late-season struggles, Mateer’s name still carries weight in NFL circles. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. currently ranks him as the fourth-best quarterback prospect in the 2026 class. That’s notable, especially in a quarterback group that’s being called underwhelming compared to the star-studded class expected in 2027.
So the question becomes: Does Mateer strike now, capitalizing on a weaker QB class, or does he bet on himself, return to Oklahoma, and try to elevate his stock with a healthy, polished season - even if it means entering a more competitive draft next year?
It’s a classic risk-reward scenario. Enter now and risk being picked apart by scouts who saw the thumb-affected version of his game. Or stay, and risk getting lost in a deeper, more talented pool of quarterbacks a year from now.
What’s Next?
Mateer has earned the right to take his time with this decision. He’s shown flashes of high-level talent - enough to warrant serious NFL consideration. But he’s also shown enough inconsistency to raise legitimate questions about whether he’s ready to make the leap.
This isn’t a situation where the answer is obvious. It’s a nuanced decision that will come down to how much Mateer believes in his ability to bounce back, improve, and prove he’s more than what the second half of this season showed.
Whatever choice he makes, it’ll be one that shapes the next chapter of his football journey - whether that’s back in Norman with unfinished business or at the next level, trying to prove he belongs among the best.