Oklahoma is penciled into the 2026 College Football Playoff, and the bigger question is who else makes the cut and how the bracket shakes out.
The Sooners are projected to return to the CFP with a defense that ranks among the nation’s best, a far more dangerous offense and a roster loaded with experience. The schedule is the obvious pushback, but the projection here is that it won’t be as intimidating as it looks on paper - and that Oklahoma is good enough to beat every team it sees anyway.
That sets up a bracket with Oregon at the top and Oklahoma right in the thick of it.
The Ducks are projected to claim the No. 1 seed after putting together a season that matches elite talent with elite coaching. Their schedule gives them chances to prove it, with nonconference games against Boise State and Oklahoma State plus a rugged Big Ten slate. There will probably be a stumble along the way - maybe at Ohio State - but Oregon is expected to bounce back, win the Big Ten and secure the top spot.
Oklahoma’s path is a little different. The Sooners are projected to finish 11-1 in the regular season, then turn around and avenge their lone loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That gives OU a strong case for No. 1, but Oregon’s season-opening win over Boise State and its own championship-game revenge are enough to keep the Ducks ahead.
Behind those two, Notre Dame is expected to clear its biggest obstacle once and for all. Miami is again viewed as the Irish’s only real roadblock, and the projection has Notre Dame winning that matchup at home and rolling through the rest of the schedule.
Georgia is in the field too, even after dropping from No. 1 to No. 4 following a loss to Oklahoma in the SEC title game. The Bulldogs are projected to take one regular-season loss as well, but the schedule is described as manageable by SEC standards, and Kirby Smart’s team is still viewed as a playoff lock.
Ohio State lands near the top as well. The Buckeyes are the No. 1 team in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll for a reason, with a loaded roster and some of the best offensive talent in the sport. But the schedule is rough, with Texas, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan all looming, so the Buckeyes are expected to absorb a few hits.
Miami finally gets over the hump in the ACC in this projection, even with that loss at Notre Dame. The Hurricanes are expected to win the league and return to the playoff.
Indiana is also back, though not at the level it reached in 2025 when it was the national champion. Curt Cignetti has built the Hoosiers into a steady playoff-caliber program, at least until Alabama throws “a billion dollars” at him to replace Kalen DeBoer.
Lane Kiffin’s first season at LSU is treated with some caution, but the setup is appealing. LSU has gone all in, given him the resources to win quickly and placed him in a schedule that brings most of the toughest games to Baton Rouge. That’s enough for the Tigers to get in.
Texas A&M is projected to grab one of the final spots after beating Texas in the Lone Star Showdown during the last week of the regular season. That game is framed as a playoff play-in, and the Aggies are expected to use home field to punch their ticket. The loss sends Texas out of the field again and is also projected to cost Steve Sarkisian his job, with the Longhorns finishing 8-4.
Louisville rounds out the field as Jeff Brohm continues to build momentum. The Cardinals are projected to handle a manageable schedule that includes possible wins over Ole Miss, SMU and Kentucky. Even with a loss to Miami in the ACC Championship Game, Louisville still gets in.
Texas Tech is the last team in, helped more by the bracket math than affection for the team itself. The Red Raiders are projected to win the Big 12, and their schedule is described as brutal enough to make a modest record look impressive. The main danger spots are Houston at home and Oklahoma State in Stillwater, but the committee is still expected to let Tech in as the lowest-ranked Power 4 team.
Boise State claims the Group of 6 berth after an expected season-opening loss to Oregon, then running the table in the new Pac-12.
The projected first-round matchups are Ohio State against Boise State, Miami against Texas Tech, Indiana against Louisville and LSU against Texas A&M, with Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Georgia getting byes.
From there, the second round is projected to send Georgia against Ohio State, Oregon against LSU, Notre Dame against Miami and Oklahoma against Indiana. The semifinal matchups then line up as Ohio State against Oregon and Miami against Oklahoma.
The title game prediction is Oregon over Oklahoma.
This is billed as the Ducks’ year under Dan Lanning, with enough firepower to finish the job and give Phil Knight, now 88, a chance to see the money well spent. The final call is that Oregon simply has too much offense for the Sooners to handle.
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