Oklahoma Football Faces CFP Doubts Despite Momentum Under Venables
In Norman, the expectation is clear: College Football Playoff or bust. After returning to the CFP for the first time in years, Oklahoma has reestablished itself among the sport’s elite.
That’s the new bar. But not everyone is convinced the Sooners are primed to clear it again in 2026.
Despite a strong showing last season - including a dominant run through SEC play and a defense that brought relentless pressure - Oklahoma was notably absent from a recent list of teams that improved their playoff chances heading into 2026. ESPN’s Craig Haubert, a recruiting analyst, left the Sooners off his list of 12 programs that boosted their CFP stock through offseason roster moves.
That list includes some usual suspects and a few rising contenders: Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas Tech, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas, UNLV, and USC. Oklahoma? Nowhere to be found.
So what gives?
A look at the numbers offers part of the answer. Oklahoma’s transfer portal class ranked No. 24 nationally.
Their high school recruiting class? No.
- Solid, but not spectacular - especially in today’s college football arms race, where elite talent acquisition often separates contenders from pretenders.
And in the eyes of some analysts, that may be enough to bump Oklahoma down a tier.
But let’s not act like the gap is massive.
This is still a team with real juice heading into 2026. Brent Venables has built a roster with depth, experience, and an identity - especially on defense.
And at quarterback, John Mateer is emerging as a potential star. He’s got the tools, the confidence, and that edge you want in a leader.
If he takes the next step, Oklahoma’s offense could be more than just “timely” - it could be dangerous.
And that’s the thing: this team doesn’t need to be perfect to make the playoff. Not anymore.
In the expanded CFP era, it’s less about being flawless and more about being consistently competitive. A top-five recruiting class helps, sure.
But it’s not a prerequisite. Oklahoma’s roster, while not loaded with blue-chip newcomers, is still among the most complete in the SEC.
And that’s saying something.
Let’s say four SEC teams make the playoff again - a real possibility given the league’s depth. Are we so sure Oklahoma isn’t in that mix?
Even five SEC teams making it back-to-back years isn’t out of the question. In that kind of field, the Sooners absolutely belong in the conversation.
The challenge for Venables and his staff is clear: prove that development, continuity, and scheme can make up for a recruiting class that didn’t crack the top 10. If they do that - if they get back to the playoff despite the skepticism - it’ll be a testament to the program’s culture and coaching. But if they fall just short, fans will inevitably point to the offseason and wonder if more could’ve been done.
For now, Oklahoma sits in that crowded tier of 20-something programs with legitimate playoff hopes. They’re not a lock. But they’re not far off, either.
And with a defense that can get after the quarterback and a rising star under center, the Sooners might just be sneaky dangerous - whether the recruiting rankings say so or not.