John Mateer may end up being the swing factor in whether Oklahoma can justify Greg McElroy’s bullish view of the Sooners.
While the SEC Preseason Media Poll slotted Oklahoma seventh in the league, McElroy isn’t buying the cautious projection. On his “Always College Football” podcast this week, the ESPN analyst grouped the Sooners with Texas, Georgia and Ole Miss as SEC teams he believes are not just playoff-caliber, but capable of going all the way.
As McElroy put it, this is not a “can they make the playoff question, this is a can they win the whole thing?”
He sorted the SEC’s 16 teams into five tiers, putting Oklahoma in the top group with Texas, Georgia and Ole Miss. Texas A&M, Alabama and LSU followed in Tier 2 as additional playoff contenders.
Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida landed in Tier 3. Missouri, Auburn and Vanderbilt were placed in Tier 4 as bowl-eligible teams, and Kentucky, Mississippi State and Arkansas made up Tier 5 at the bottom of the conference.
The skepticism around Oklahoma mostly comes from the same place: a tough schedule and a quarterback question. The Sooners face three top-25 teams in their first five games, and there are still doubts about whether Mateer can build on a 2025 season that was interrupted by injury.
McElroy sees a different path. He believes Brent Venables and his staff made the right offseason adjustments and added the personnel needed to push the offense forward in 2026. In his view, a healthy Mateer operating behind a stronger offensive line and with better weapons around him could change the entire look of the unit.
That’s where the real test sits for Oklahoma. A more balanced offense is the piece McElroy is pointing to as the X factor if the Sooners are going to live up to his expectations.
The SEC has no shortage of quarterbacks with big-time physical tools, but the ones who separate themselves are the ones who protect the ball and handle pressure cleanly. Mateer did not do that consistently in his first season at Oklahoma and in the SEC, thumb injury or not.
For Oklahoma, Mateer’s growth may be what turns McElroy’s optimism into something real.
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