Arch Manning’s name has been living in a different universe than John Mateer’s this season, but the production hasn’t been all that far apart.
That’s the uncomfortable truth for Oklahoma fans looking for a quick fix after two ugly offensive outings. Mateer has taken plenty of heat for the Sooners’ problems, yet the numbers through three games say the issue runs deeper than the quarterback.
Manning, meanwhile, is being talked about like a Heisman contender while leading the No. 1 team in the country. The gap in perception is massive.
The gap in performance? Not so much.
Through three games, Mateer has completed 62.7% of his passes, going 47-for-75, for 652 yards, six passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Manning is at 61.5% completions, 59-for-96, with 661 passing yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions.
Mateer has a 65.1 QBR; Manning sits at 71.0. On the ground, Mateer has 26 rushes for 69 yards, while Manning has 21 carries for 83 yards.
Neither has a rushing touchdown.
The schedule context matters, too. Mateer has faced an average defense ranking of 30, while Manning’s has been 90.
Outside of Ohio State, Manning hasn’t gone up against a defense ranked in the top 100 in total defense. Mateer hasn’t faced one outside the top 100.
And yet Texas is scoring 37.7 points per game, which ranks 42nd in FBS. Oklahoma is at 25 points per game, good for 98th. Strip out the 51-0 win over UTEP, and the Sooners have managed just 12 points per game over their last two outings.
That’s where the real separation shows up. Both teams have elite defenses, but statistically Oklahoma’s is the better one.
Still, Texas is 3-0 and sitting at No. 1 after beating Ohio State. Oklahoma is 2-1, has dropped a game to Michigan, and is out of the AP Top 25 this week.
So what does the comparison actually tell us? It says Mateer is part of the problem, but not the whole thing. It also says that swapping quarterbacks wouldn’t suddenly make this offense click if everything around him stays the same.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, who handles the play-calling, has built a setup that doesn’t ask Manning to do everything by himself. Ben Arbuckle, who came with Mateer from Washington State last year, hasn’t found that balance with Oklahoma’s quarterback.
Sarkisian also went out and got Manning the best weapons money could buy at receiver this offseason. Oklahoma brought back top receiver Isaiah Sategna III and then searched the transfer portal for value. The results haven’t been enough to lift the Sooners’ offense.
The run game has been another drag. Oklahoma ranks 123rd in FBS in rushing offense at 110.33 yards per game and hasn’t topped 100 yards in either of the last two games.
Texas, by comparison, averages 176 rushing yards per game, which ranks 54th. That at least gives Manning some support.
Protection matters, too. Mateer has been sacked six times, an average of twice per game.
Manning has been sacked four times. According to PFF grades, Texas has the best pass protection in college football.
It’s not a fun comparison for Oklahoma fans, but it makes the point pretty clearly: benching Mateer won’t fix what’s broken in Norman.
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