November football wasted no time shaking up ESPN’s FPI ratings after Week 10, and the biggest swings came with some lopsided scores. Since FPI is driven by the numbers and not the eye test, it can produce some head-turning placements - like 9-0 UCLA sitting one spot ahead of 5-4 Florida, or 7-2 Kentucky landing four spots behind 5-4 Penn State. Week 10 added another layer of chaos.
The largest move in both directions came out of Oklahoma State’s 66-28 rout, a result that sent the Cowboys climbing while also creating the week’s biggest drop elsewhere. Even after the bump, Oklahoma State sits at 6-3 with only a 4.5% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Still, at fifth in the Big 12, the Cowboys may be one more statement win away from moving up, with Texas Tech currently second in the league at 14th.
Oklahoma also made a noticeable leap after its 23-7 win at Florida. That result pushed the Sooners into the middle of the SEC pack in FPI.
At 5-4, Oklahoma is out of the Playoff picture at 0.4%, but the win gives the Sooners an 86.6% chance to pick up one more victory and become bowl eligible. It’s not much, but in a season like this, it counts.
Duke’s 41-3 blowout of NC State moved the Blue Devils up a bit in the ACC hierarchy as well. The numbers still aren’t kind to Duke’s postseason hopes, though: even at 7-2, the Blue Devils have just a 1.1% shot at the Playoff. In the ACC, it still looks like Miami, maybe Wake, or bust.
Kansas State took one of the roughest hits of the week after an ugly 38-point loss dropped the Wildcats to just ahead of Colorado in the Big 12 basement. FPI now gives K-State only a 23% chance to get to six wins and bowl eligibility, and it doesn’t look great for either Kansas program making the postseason.
Kentucky also saw its standing slide after a 34-6 loss to Tennessee. FPI has not been especially high on this Wildcats team all year - it had Kentucky 26th when the CFP rankings placed them 6th - and the latest defeat brought another dip. Even so, FPI still slots Kentucky 12th in the SEC and gives the Wildcats a 36.5% chance at the College Football Playoff.
NC State’s 38-point loss to Duke sent the Wolfpack downward too, though they still have four ACC teams below them. At 4-5, FPI gives NC State just a 17.8% chance to reach six wins and bowl eligibility. With Dave Doeren already fired, that outcome isn’t exactly a shock.
In Other News...
Oklahomas New SEC Schedule Leaves One Rivalry Choice Open To Debate
The SECs move to a nine-game conference schedule has already changed the way Oklahoma has to think about the calendar, trimming nonconference flexibility and making every permanent opponent matter a little more. From 2026 through 2029, the league will have each team visit and host every other school once, while still preserving three annual rivals, and for the Sooners that list now includes Texas, Missouri and Ole Miss.
The first two choices make obvious sense in the context of the league and the programs history, but the third has sparked plenty of curiosity because Ole Miss is a newly designated rival despite no prior history between the schools. It is the kind of scheduling wrinkle that can shape the feel of a conference slate for years, and it leaves one open question hanging over Oklahomas SEC future: whether this is the rivalry setup that best fits the Sooners, or just the one the league settled on for now. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Suddenly Has A Bowl Path Fans Will Want To See
The upset win over Florida changed the conversation around Oklahoma in a hurry, putting the Sooners one victory away from bowl eligibility and keeping alive a streak that has stretched for 27 straight seasons. What looked like a murky late-season picture now has some real shape to it, with the program suddenly within reach of another December trip and a chance to keep the postseason run going.
Several bowl projections are already floating around for Oklahoma, and the possibilities have a little extra appeal for fans watching the path ahead. Among the scenarios being discussed are a Las Vegas Bowl matchup with USC or Arizona, along with a Texas Bowl pairing against Oklahoma State, though everything still depends on how the rest of the season plays out. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Just Got A Troubling Trell Harris Update
Trell Harris recovery has become one of the more sobering storylines around Oklahomas season. The wide receiver has been dealing with a lacerated internal organ suffered in the game against Michigan, and Brent Venables said Harris also had a post-surgery infection that required antibiotics. Even so, the coach said Harris remains in good spirits as he continues the long road back.
Harris is expected to return to Norman by the end of next week, which at least gives the Sooners a clearer timeline for the next phase of his recovery. The bigger reality, though, is that a return to play this season is unlikely, leaving Oklahoma to keep waiting on one of its more difficult injury situations to fully resolve. [Read more 🡒]