Week 7 turned the College Football Playoff race into a mess, but not the kind that wiped everybody out. The weekend had all the ingredients for total wreckage - the news of CFP expansion before Saturday, then five of the top seven teams in the AP poll losing for the first time ever - yet only a small group of teams saw their postseason dreams end completely. A lot more programs are now hanging on by a thread, but the tiebreakers kept several lives on the table.
The American remains crowded enough that 14 of its 17 teams still have two or fewer conference losses, which keeps automatic-bid hopes alive for a surprising number of schools. That’s why teams like Duke, Pitt and Virginia are still in the conversation for Charlotte, even if the path is narrow and depends on chaos elsewhere.
In the Big 12, the picture looks even stranger: three of the nation’s five undefeated teams live there, and four league teams sit in the top 15. BYU’s nonconference win over Notre Dame only strengthened that case, especially with the Cougars and Texas Tech not meeting in the regular season.
That opens the door for the Big 12 to land two teams in the field no matter what happens in the title game.
Some contenders, though, took hits they may never recover from. Arizona State’s defense has been a disaster, and Kenny Dillingham’s team has already watched its return trip to the Big 12 title game slip away before Halloween.
The Sun Devils have given up 125 points in three conference games and are now 3-3 overall. Cincinnati is in rough shape too after blowing a game in which it piled up 622 yards and 42 points on offense; that loss likely ended any realistic playoff path.
The Big Ten, meanwhile, stayed relatively calm even in a wild national weekend. Eleven teams in the league still have two or fewer losses, and the list of possible Indianapolis contenders remains long. Indiana’s run finally ended against Ohio State, but only by the slimmest of margins.
The SEC did what it usually does: produce more questions than answers while reminding everybody how brutal the league can be. Alabama, Mississippi State, Missouri and Texas all lost, and while none of those defeats were instantly fatal, each one left playoff hopes looking fragile. At the same time, the Big 12 and Big Ten appear to have more legitimate 12-team field candidates than expected, which may be part of why the SEC has warmed to the idea of a 24-team playoff.
Oklahoma took another damaging blow at home against Kentucky, and John Mateer “went full John Mateer” in that loss. The Sooners’ nonconference defeat to Michigan has already undercut their at-large case, and even winning out may not be enough given the tiebreaker damage. That result also raised bigger questions around the program that Brent Venables and his new athletic director will have to confront if more losses pile up.
Notre Dame’s defeat at BYU carried major weight too. Fans who made the trip to Provo, along with those watching from home, had plenty to gripe about after the late finish.
More importantly, that loss makes the game against Miami in South Bend next month feel like a must-win from a CFP standpoint. If the Irish don’t beat the Hurricanes, they could finish without a single Top 25 win.
There was movement in the American off the field as James Madison’s future move into the league was announced, but the on-field picture was less encouraging. Memphis is still alive to win the conference, though the Tigers probably need to win out and look convincing to stay in the Group of 6 conversation after a bizarre loss at Tulane in which they simply could not protect the football. UTSA, on the other hand, may have strengthened its claim as the team to beat after beating Navy.
Elsewhere in the Group of 6 picture, Zach Kittley’s Owls are clearly improved and should get to a bowl for the first time since 2020, but their blowout loss to Army probably shut the door on any lingering CFP hopes. The Broncos also stayed in the mix despite a fourth-quarter wobble that made the game against Central Michigan much tighter than it should have been. They completed only five passes in a performance that looked more like a service academy game, and a crucial trip to Toledo could decide a spot in Detroit.
The Mountain West still has a lot of moving parts, and Week 7 did not make that any easier to sort out. New Mexico escaped with a close win over Hawai‘i, Air Force pulled off a stunning fourth-quarter comeback to beat UNLV, and the Bison found unusual ways to score in order to hold off Nevada. The point is simple: staying alive is still staying alive.
The Pac-12 had a quieter Saturday. Oregon State handled Washington State comfortably, and the Broncos were off. Even so, everything points to at least two meetings next month between the Beavers and one of the league’s most notable newcomers, with plenty of CFP implications hanging over both games.
James Madison had one of the week’s biggest stretches of momentum. The Dukes announced their move to the American, tightened their grip on the Sun Belt East with a big win over Georgia State and kept applying pressure in the Group of 6 race. Georgia State’s 49-22 loss showed how far the Panthers still have to go, but just being part of this CFP conversation in mid-October says plenty about the turnaround in Atlanta in 2026.
In Other News...
Oklahoma's Biggest Problem Heading Into Mississippi State Is Hard To Ignore
Oklahoma heads into its meeting with Mississippi State still trying to find a steadier gear on offense, and the concerns are hard to miss. John Mateer has flashed the kind of playmaking that can tilt a game, but the turnovers have been part of the package, and the Sooners have also had to lean on Avant to help keep the ground game moving when the passing attack bogs down.
Mississippi State brings its own uncertainty, starting with the quarterback situation, which adds another layer to a matchup already shaped by defenses on both sides. The Sooners will need to sort out their own ball security issues before they can worry much about the Bulldogs, because the margin for error shrinks fast when one offense is still searching for consistency and the other side is capable of making the game messy. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Fans Wont Like Why Ryan Fodje Stayed In Against Kentucky
Late in Oklahomas home loss to Kentucky, starting left tackle Ryan Fodje went down with a right ankle injury in the closing minutes of the third quarter and briefly headed to the sideline for examination. He came back with the ankle heavily taped, a sequence that mattered because the Sooners offense was already losing its grip on the game and needed stability in the worst possible spot.
Brent Venables said the call to put Fodje back in came with input from the training staff and from Fodje himself, a detail Oklahoma fans probably will not love given how the rest of the night unfolded. After he returned, the offense kept sputtering, with the protection issues showing up in the form of sacks and interceptions, leaving the injury decision as one more thing the Sooners will have to sort through after an ugly home result. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma Faces One Big Offensive Concern Entering Mississippi State
Brent Venables missed Tuesdays press conference because of flu-like symptoms, leaving defensive tackles coach Todd Bates to field questions as Oklahoma turned the page toward Mississippi State. The conversation quickly settled on the offense, where the Sooners are still trying to get a steadier rhythm while the defense continues to hold up at a national level.
Ryan Fodjes injury status was part of the discussion, along with the broader issues on offense and the encouraging signs from running back Tory Blaylock as he works back from an early-season injury. For Oklahoma, the formula is clear enough: the defense is doing its part, but the offense still has to answer the biggest question hanging over this stretch of the schedule. [Read more 🡒]