Halloween weekend brought another shake-up to ESPN’s FPI, and the biggest swings came with the kind of results that make the formula look both ruthless and a little bizarre. Iowa, USC, Washington, Boston College, UCF and Oklahoma all moved in very different directions after Week 9, with some teams getting a real boost and others taking a hard hit.
Iowa was one of the weekend’s clearest winners. After a rough loss to Minnesota, the Hawkeyes answered with a 30-0 shutout of Wisconsin.
That result likely sends the Badgers tumbling out of the AP top 25 and gets Iowa back in. The Hawkeyes are still carrying two losses, and their College Football Playoff chances sit at just 11%, but the jump puts them up to sixth in the Big Ten and points toward a strong bowl destination.
USC also made a big move, and this one came with a statement win. The Trojans beat Ohio State 30-18, a result that dropped the Buckeyes just one spot but lifted USC 10 places.
That’s a major swing for a team that had just been beaten 24-7 by Wisconsin and looked like it might be sliding. Instead, the Trojans get an open week before heading to Indiana, a team that suddenly looks vulnerable.
USC’s Playoff odds are only 18.7%, but games against Indiana and UCLA could still change that picture.
Washington didn’t produce the flashiest result, but the Huskies did enough to keep building. They edged Nebraska 17-10, and while they’re not in the Playoff conversation, the win pushed their chances of reaching six victories and bowl eligibility to 84.8%. The final stretch is still tricky, with Indiana coming to Seattle and Oregon waiting on the road to close the regular season.
Not every weekend brought good news. Boston College took the hardest fall among the ACC teams mentioned here, getting blasted by Duke 47-2.
That’s the kind of loss that leaves a mark. The Eagles are 4-4, but with Notre Dame and Miami still on the schedule, their odds of getting to six regular-season wins and a bowl are down to 11.4%.
UCF also had a rough Friday night. The Golden Knights were coming off an upset of No.
2 BYU, but Baylor snapped that momentum with a 41-9 win. Even so, the rest of the schedule gives UCF some breathing room.
None of the teams left on the slate has a winning record, and the Knights still have a 74.1% chance of getting to six wins.
Oklahoma’s loss may have been the most frustrating of the bunch in the SEC. The Sooners fell 42-25 at home to South Carolina, and FPI reacted by dropping them 11 spots.
South Carolina moved up one place, but Oklahoma’s path is getting tighter by the week. Three ranked teams remain on the schedule, along with road trips to Florida and Missouri, and even their 50.5% shot at six wins may be on the optimistic side.
In Other News...
Oklahomas Offensive Collapse Just Raised A Bigger Brent Venables Question
Oklahomas offense never found its footing in the 42-25 loss to South Carolina, and the frustration around the program only deepened as the game wore on. The Sooners were outplayed by a Gamecocks team led by LaNorris Sellers, who carved up the defense through the air and on the ground in one of the more complete performances Oklahoma has faced this season.
Brent Venables was left to answer for the result afterward, but he declined to get into any possible coaching changes in the wake of the defeat. With the offense sputtering and the margin for error shrinking, the bigger concern now is whether this was just a bad night or a sign that Oklahomas issues run much deeper than one loss. [Read more 🡒]
Boganowski Sends Oklahoma A Blunt Message After Defensive Collapse
Michael Boganowski had a milestone moment in Oklahomas 42-25 loss to South Carolina, picking off his first pass as a defensive back, but the play was buried in a rough afternoon for the Sooners defense. The unit missed a season-high 27 tackles and gave up multiple long touchdown passes, turning a breakthrough individual moment into a footnote in a game that slipped away.
Boganowski didnt try to soften the bigger picture afterward, pointing to the defenses poor execution and the need to clean it up quickly with more games ahead. For Oklahoma, the interception offered a small bright spot, but the larger concern is whether the Sooners can turn that kind of effort into something more reliable before the next test arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Sooners Fans Turned On The Offense As Pressure Mounted Fast
The frustration inside Norman showed up early and never really let go, as Oklahomas offense spent much of the afternoon searching for answers in a 42-25 home loss to South Carolina. The Sooners were booed by their own fans as the pressure mounted, a sharp turn for a team that had hoped to steady itself at home after a rough stretch. John Mateer finished 26 of 43 for 244 yards and two touchdowns, but the production never fully matched the urgency of the moment.
South Carolinas LaNorris Sellers kept the game moving in the other direction, making plays as both a passer and runner while Oklahoma tried to keep pace. The loss marked the Sooners second straight home defeat for the first time since 2024, a troubling note for a team still trying to find its footing in front of its own crowd. The schedule does not offer much breathing room either, with Florida up next on Nov. 7. [Read more 🡒]