Baker Mayfield has spent enough of his career waiting for the right break. He still doesn’t have the ring to show for what he’s done at Oklahoma, Cleveland, Carolina or Los Angeles, and the latest signs out of Tampa Bay suggest that drought isn’t ending with the Buccaneers.
The biggest clue came Monday, when ESPN reported that two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vita Vea has requested a trade before the 2026 season begins. Vea’s contract talks with the Bucs stalled, just like Mayfield’s have, and the request lands in the middle of an offseason that already saw Tampa lose Mike Evans, Mayfield’s favorite receiver, along with more defensive talent. For a team entering what should be a contract year for its quarterback, that’s a loud message.
Mayfield had already made his position clear: once training camp started, he wasn’t going to get into contract negotiations with the Buccaneers. Now that practices are underway, he’s expected to play out the deal he has and hit free agency next offseason.
That puts this year on track to be his fourth and final season in Tampa Bay, unless something dramatic changes. And if the Buccaneers keep moving in the direction they’ve chosen, it’s hard to see how Mayfield stays beyond that. The organization has made its priorities plain by letting veterans leave and leaning toward the future instead of the present, even with a quarterback who has already shown he can get them to the playoffs.
Mayfield arrived in Tampa in 2023 after the journeyman stretch that followed his time as a franchise quarterback seemed to have pushed him out of that category. He came in to replace Tom Brady and was supposed to bridge the gap to whatever came next. Instead, he made the job his own.
Over his first two seasons, Mayfield led the Buccaneers to a division title and a postseason berth. Then in 2024, he signed a three-year extension worth up to $100 million, with $50 million guaranteed, a deal that runs through 2027. That extension came on the back of a huge year: 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.
Last season was a different story for the team around him. An aging roster got exposed, injuries piled up, and Tampa Bay missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
Even so, Mayfield had the Bucs sitting at 5-1 early on and was in the MVP conversation while stacking clutch drive after clutch drive. He finished 8-9, and he did it without his two best receivers.
That’s what makes the offseason chatter around his health and ability so hard to square with what actually happened. Mayfield never missed a game and kept dragging a depleted roster as far as it could go.
The problem wasn’t him. The problem was everything around him.
If the Buccaneers do let Vea walk too, the picture gets even clearer: this is a team thinking about later, not now. And that means Tampa Bay is burning one of the last prime years Mayfield has left as an eight-year veteran.
If he’s going to get the championship he still deserves, it probably won’t come in Tampa. A trade doesn’t seem likely, so the next move may have to wait until next offseason, when he can choose a team that’s one quarterback away. The source of that opportunity could be a place like the Rams or the Pittsburgh Steelers, or whoever else is close enough to the promised land to make sense.
Mayfield can absolutely lead a team to a title. The question is whether the Buccaneers will be the ones to let him try.
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