Arch Manning’s night against Oklahoma is the kind of performance that can shift the conversation fast, and maybe even blunt some of the loftiest NFL Draft talk that had built around the Texas quarterback.
Texas was still in the fight late in Saturday’s 27-24 loss to the Sooners, but Manning’s fourth quarter turned into a costly mess. He threw a pick-six early in the period that put Oklahoma ahead 24-17.
Texas answered with a touchdown on the next possession, only for Manning to give the ball back again with 0:19 left on another interception. Sooners kicker Tate Sandell then drilled the game-winning 47-yard field goal.
The mistakes also underscored why Manning hadn’t entered the game as a Heisman candidate, and why some evaluators are backing off the idea that he’s on track to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, which is scheduled for April 29-May 1 in Washington.
On Sunday, ESPN’s Jordan Reid said Manning still flashes the kind of talent that gets scouts leaning forward, but not nearly enough to ignore the rough edges.
"Manning has two or three plays per game that explain why some scouts still view him as a potential top-10 pick," wrote Reid. "But those plays are surrounded by too much inconsistency, which is why I have him graded as a Day 2 prospect right now on my QB hot board."
The Ringer’s Todd McShay framed Manning’s issues as part of the learning curve for a young quarterback.
"You can't coach his traits or some of his playmaking under pressure," he wrote of the 6-foot-4, 222-pounder. "Locking onto targets, holding onto the ball too long and general inconsistency are all coachable issues that often improve with experience. We just happen to be watching his development under a microscope."
That microscope gets brighter in the NFL, where patience usually runs thin. Teams that take quarterbacks in the first round often end up playing them during their rookie seasons, and the recent examples are impossible to miss.
2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears and 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward of the Tennessee Titans each started 17 games as rookies. Even Jaxson Dart, the New York Giants’ second-year quarterback taken No. 25, started 12 games in his first season.
So while Texas sits at 4-1 and still has seven regular-season games left, Manning’s current profile is hard to ignore. He ranks 44th in the country in QBR at 65.5, and that’s not the sort of number that screams pro-ready.
Manning has the bloodline that naturally fuels the big projection - he’s the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and the grandson of Archie Manning, the 1971 No. 2 pick. But right now, the gap between the name and the production is what NFL evaluators are staring at.
In Other News...
Oklahoma May Have Finally Found Its Answer At Running Back
For much of the first half against Texas, Oklahomas rushing attack was stuck in neutral, managing only one yard on 13 carries and leaving the Sooners searching for any kind of rhythm on the ground. The adjustment came after halftime, when Lloyd Avant started to look like the kind of back the offense had been waiting for, giving the running game a much-needed lift with a series of productive runs that changed the feel of the matchup.
Avant finished with 10 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown, and his second-half surge was enough to put him at the front of the discussion at running back. Brent Venables and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle both pointed to persistence and execution as the difference, and after that performance, Avant appears to have taken a meaningful step toward becoming the answer Oklahoma has been looking for in the backfield. [Read more 🡒]
Oklahoma's Bowl Outlook Looks Very Different After Stunning Texas Win
A last-second field goal from Tate Sandell changed the feel around Oklahoma football in an instant, flipping a matchup with the top-ranked Texas Longhorns into one of the seasons most satisfying wins. Beyond the celebration, the result matters because it gives the Sooners a much better footing in the race for a postseason bowl berth, with the kind of momentum that can reshape how the rest of the year is viewed.
It also makes the postseason picture a lot more interesting, since different media outlets are already floating a range of possible bowl destinations for Oklahoma in 2026. The specific matchups can still move around depending on how the next few weeks play out, but this much is clear: after a win that big, the Sooners are no longer looking at bowl season from the same spot they were before the kick sailed through. [Read more 🡒]
Isaiah Sategna's Red River Heroics Changed Everything For Oklahoma
Late in the Red River showdown, Isaiah Sategna III turned a tense finish into the kind of moment Oklahoma can build around. He made two critical catches in the final seconds against Texas, helping set up the game-winning field goal and giving the Sooners a lift when the game was hanging in the balance. Sategna finished with five receptions for 64 yards, tying for the game-high.
Brent Venables and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle both praised Sategna during that decisive drive, a sign of how quickly he has become part of Oklahomas most important moments. For a team that needed somebody to make a play when it mattered most, Sategna delivered exactly that, and his late-game work added a new layer to what the Sooners can count on down the stretch. [Read more 🡒]