The Oklahoma City Thunder are betting that Cason Wallace can grow into the kind of two-way guard who makes a starting backcourt work at the highest level. That bet is about to get expensive if he does.
After moving on from Luguentz Dort this offseason, Oklahoma City opened the door for Wallace and Ajay Mitchell to take on bigger jobs in 2026-27. Dort’s departure came after his offensive efficiency slipped badly last season, and the Thunder were willing to walk away from a $17.7 million team option. But the team’s next step depends on whether Wallace and Mitchell can raise the level of a rotation that’s supposed to keep championship standards intact.
For Wallace, the assignment is pretty clear: keep doing the dirty work on defense, but add more on offense. He’s already one of the league’s most disruptive perimeter defenders, with the same kind of point-of-attack upside Dort brought to the table. What Oklahoma City needs now is for the fourth-year guard to shoot better and show more confidence handling the ball if the team is going to trust him long term in a starting role alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
There’s a blueprint sitting right there in Dort’s career arc. Before 2023-24, Dort was a 33.2% 3-point shooter.
Then he climbed to 39.4% in 2023-24 and 41.2% in 2024-25, turning himself into a much more valuable player for the organization. If Wallace can follow that same path, the Thunder may get the exact version of him they need.
Wallace averaged 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists last season while making 35.1% of his 3-point tries. He has shown some flashes as an on-ball option and as a secondary playmaker, but his biggest value right now still comes from what he does defensively. Oklahoma City was comfortable with that profile earlier in Dort’s career, and it would likely be comfortable with it now too.
The catch is what happens if Wallace makes that leap before the Thunder lock him into a new deal. He’s already on track to command somewhere in the range of $20 million to $23 million per year on his next contract. Dort’s five-year, $82.5 million deal came in a lower market and before the 2022-23 season, well before he became the offensively impactful player seen during Oklahoma City’s championship run.
That’s where the numbers around the Thunder’s future start to get tight. By 2027-28, the team will owe more than $150 million to Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, with extensions for Mitchell and Jared McCain also looming. If Wallace develops the way Dort did in 2026-27, Oklahoma City could find itself negotiating a much pricier contract than it expected.
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