The Oklahoma City Thunder have built something special - and not just in terms of star power. Their depth is arguably the best in the league, giving them the flexibility to weather injuries, test out lineup combinations, and stay competitive across 48 minutes. No team leans into lineup experimentation quite like the Thunder, and the early returns from this season’s rotation data are telling us a lot about what works - and what still needs work - if OKC wants to make a serious championship push.
The Defensive Trio That’s Dominating
Let’s start with what’s working - and it’s working really well.
When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shares the floor with rookie Cason Wallace and big man Chet Holmgren, the Thunder don’t just look good - they look elite. This trio is putting up a staggering +25.8 net rating, scoring 125.4 points per 100 possessions and giving up just 99.6 on the other end. Among the 299 three-man lineups across the league that have logged at least 200 minutes together, no one’s been better.
Why does it click so well? It starts with defense.
Wallace leads the league in steals per game and is already making a strong case for All-Defensive First Team honors. His perimeter defense is advanced beyond his years - he’s quick, instinctive, and relentless.
Holmgren, meanwhile, is a defensive Swiss Army knife. He protects the rim, switches onto guards, and brings the kind of versatility that lets the Thunder be creative with their schemes.
But this trio isn’t just about defense. Holmgren and Wallace can both handle the ball and stretch the floor, which eases the offensive load on Gilgeous-Alexander and allows him to do what he does best - attack, create, and control the tempo.
They help mask his defensive limitations and amplify his offensive strengths. It’s the kind of synergy that championship teams are built on.
Given how dominant that trio has been, there’s a strong case to be made that Wallace should be closing games alongside the Thunder’s core. The fifth spot?
That can be matchup-dependent. Whether it’s Isaiah Hartenstein for size, Alex Caruso or Luguentz Dort for defense, or a shooter like Isaiah Joe, Mark Daigneault has options - and that’s a luxury not every coach has.
The Offense Falls Off Without Shai
But for all the positives, there’s one glaring issue that OKC hasn’t solved yet: what happens when Shai sits.
When Gilgeous-Alexander goes to the bench, the offense has sputtered. Specifically, lineups featuring Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell without Shai have struggled to generate efficient looks.
The numbers paint a clear picture - just 106.5 points per 100 possessions with that duo on the floor sans SGA. That’s worse than the Pacers, who rank dead last in the league in offensive rating.
Williams is a talented scorer and secondary playmaker, but without Shai drawing attention and collapsing defenses, the spacing tightens and the ball movement slows. Mitchell, still adjusting to the NBA’s pace and physicality, hasn’t yet shown he can carry an offense in those stretches.
So what’s the fix?
One option could be leaning more on Isaiah Joe during those non-Shai minutes. His three-point shooting stretches defenses and opens up driving lanes for Williams and Mitchell. Aaron Wiggins is another candidate - his ability to create off the dribble and generate offense in isolation could give the second unit a much-needed spark.
Defensively, the Thunder have enough to hold the line. If Hartenstein is anchoring the paint and either Caruso or Dort is hounding the opponent’s top perimeter threat, OKC can still get stops. The challenge is making sure the offense doesn’t grind to a halt while Shai catches his breath.
The Bigger Picture
The Thunder have the foundation of a contender - elite defense, versatile depth, and a bonafide MVP candidate in Gilgeous-Alexander. But if they want to make a deep playoff run, they need to solve the non-Shai minutes. That’s the one area that could keep them from reaching their ceiling.
The good news? They’ve got the personnel to figure it out.
The pieces are there - it’s just a matter of finding the right combinations and giving them time to gel. With a coach who’s not afraid to experiment and a roster full of two-way talent, don’t be surprised if OKC finds that missing gear.
Because when this team is clicking - especially with that Wallace-Holmgren-SGA trio on the floor - they look every bit like a team ready to compete for the ultimate prize.