The Thunder may not be projected to own the top spot in the 2026-27 regular season race, but they’re still sitting right where the league expects them to be: near the very top and firmly in the championship mix.
ESPN’s latest projections have Oklahoma City finishing second in the NBA at 60-22, behind the San Antonio Spurs, who are forecast to take both the West and the league at 62-20. That would end a run of three straight seasons in which the Thunder finished with the best record in the NBA, a stretch that began in 2023-24 and included their 2024-25 title season, when they piled up 68 wins - the fourth-most ever in a single regular season.
Michael C. Wright of ESPN pointed to Oklahoma City’s summer departures and San Antonio’s “upgraded” roster, along with the addition of Tobias Harris, as the main reasons behind the shift in the standings projection.
Even so, a 60-win season would keep the Thunder in rare company. If they hit that mark, they would become only the seventh team in NBA history to post 60 or more wins in three straight seasons. The last team to do it was the Golden State Warriors from 2014-2017.
The regular-season projection is one thing. The title conversation is another, and that’s where Oklahoma City still stands at the front of the line.
FanDuel has the Thunder as the favorites to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy next season at plus-230, while Kalshi gives them a league-best 23 percent chance. ESPN is one of the few outlets that doesn’t have Oklahoma City alone at the top of the championship board, instead tying the Thunder with the Spurs at plus-270.
That kind of respect makes sense given how much of the championship core is still in place. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are expected to enter the season fully healthy, which matters especially after J-Dub never got to that point last year.
Around them, the Thunder still have plenty of firepower and depth. Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell are on the rise, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein remain dependable veterans, and the team has added first-round picks Aday Mara, Bennett Stirtz and Thomas Sorber.
So while the Thunder may no longer be the projected No. 1 seed, the bigger picture hasn’t changed much: Oklahoma City is still viewed as the team most likely to chase down the 2027 championship.
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Thunder Face One Chet Holmgren Dilemma They Can't Ignore
The Thunder spent the offseason making their center room deeper and more complicated, a sign of how much the organization values having options around Chet Holmgren. Isaiah Hartenstein is back, Aday Mara arrived in the draft, and Thomas Sorber is entering the mix after a lost year, giving Oklahoma City a group that looks built as much for the future as for the present.
Mark Daigneault now has to sort out how those minutes get divided without shortchanging development or sacrificing the kind of stability a contender wants from the middle of the floor. Holmgrens versatility makes him the swing piece in all of it, and the Thunder are clearly preparing to rotate through several looks while figuring out which combinations can survive the regular season and which ones make the most sense long term. [Read more 🡒]