Thunder vs. Spurs Preview: Can OKC Flip the Script This Time Around?
The Thunder have a shot at redemption. After dropping a tough one to the Spurs in the NBA Cup, Oklahoma City gets not one, but two chances to even the score-tonight, and again on Christmas Day.
With the injury report still a bit cloudy, we’ll know more about who’s in and who’s out closer to tipoff. But regardless of availability, three matchups stand out as pivotal if the Thunder want to flip the narrative.
Let’s break it down.
1. Can the Thunder’s Perimeter Defense Hold the Line?
For all the attention Victor Wembanyama rightfully commands, San Antonio’s offense leans heavily on its guards to initiate the attack. Whether it’s slicing through defenses off high ball screens or breaking defenders down in isolation, the Spurs’ backcourt thrives when it’s getting downhill and collapsing the defense.
That was on full display in the NBA Cup meeting. De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle combined for 44 points on an efficient 17-of-31 from the field, carving up OKC’s defense with ease. And while rookie Dylan Harper didn’t have a big night on the stat sheet, he consistently got to his spots-he just didn’t convert at his usual clip.
If the Thunder want a different result this time around, it starts with closing off those driving lanes. That means staying disciplined on the perimeter, fighting through screens, and keeping the Spurs’ guards out of the paint. Because once San Antonio starts collapsing the defense, those kick-outs to open shooters become inevitable-and dangerous.
The trio of Cason Wallace, Luguentz Dort, and (if he’s good to go) Alex Caruso will be critical here. This group has the potential to be one of the best perimeter defensive units in the league. Tonight, they’ll need to prove it.
2. Will the Thunder’s Shooters Stay Hot from Deep?
Let’s be honest-trying to score inside against Wembanyama is like trying to finish at the rim with a skyscraper in the paint. His size and mobility completely change the geometry of the court. For Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of OKC’s slashers, the paint becomes a no-fly zone when Wemby is lurking.
That puts a premium on perimeter shooting. And lately, the Thunder have been up to the task. They’ve hit 40.2% of their threes over the last ten games, and with the roster nearing full strength, there’s reason to believe that trend can continue.
One key piece they missed in the NBA Cup loss? Isaiah Joe.
Without him, OKC shot just 24.3% from deep-well below their standard. His return could be a major boost, not just for his own shot-making, but for the spacing he provides.
And keep an eye on Luguentz Dort. He’s coming off a strong shooting night against Memphis. If he can carry that momentum into this matchup, it could open up a lot for OKC’s offense.
3. The Wemby Minutes Matter-But So Do the Non-Wemby Minutes
In the NBA Cup showdown, the numbers were telling: Oklahoma City was +19 when Wembanyama sat, and -21 when he played. That’s a massive swing, and it tells you everything about the challenge of facing a player who can dominate both ends of the floor.
The Thunder obviously need to do a better job containing Wemby when he’s on the court-easier said than done-but just as important is capitalizing when he’s not. Those minutes against the Spurs’ second unit, especially when Luke Kornet is manning the middle, are where OKC needs to build a cushion.
Think of it as a chess match. You’re not going to win every battle against the king, but if you dominate when the king’s off the board, you give yourself a real shot at checkmate.
Bottom Line
Oklahoma City has the tools to make this a very different game than the one we saw in the NBA Cup. But it’s going to take discipline on defense, sharp shooting from deep, and smart execution when Wembanyama rests. If the Thunder can check those boxes, they’ll put themselves in a great position to even the score-and maybe set the tone for a Christmas Day encore.
Tonight’s matchup isn’t just about revenge. It’s about proving the Thunder can adjust, adapt, and rise to the moment. Let’s see if they’re ready.