After a red-hot 24-1 start to the season that had the league buzzing, the Oklahoma City Thunder have hit a bit of turbulence. Injuries, cold shooting stretches, and the natural grind of an 82-game season have pulled them back to earth, with just 14 wins in their last 24 games. Still, they remain one of the most exciting young teams in the NBA - but there's one issue that continues to stick out like a sore thumb.
More than halfway through the year, OKC’s biggest offensive flaw has been hiding in plain sight: they’re struggling to knock down contested catch-and-shoot threes. And it’s not just a cold week or two - this has been a season-long concern.
The Thunder’s loss to the Raptors recently put this problem under the microscope. In that game, OKC generated 19 wide-open, unguarded catch-and-shoot threes - the kind of looks every offense dreams of.
They hit eight of them, a solid 42%. But when the defense tightened up?
They went just 2-for-21 on contested catch-and-shoot threes. That’s less than 10% - a brutal number for any team, let alone one with championship aspirations.
Now, to be fair, the Thunder actually rank in the top 10 in contested three-point shooting percentage league-wide. So from a team perspective, it’s not quite the disaster it might seem. But once you drill down into the individual performances - especially from the players tasked with spacing the floor around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - the cracks start to show.
Let’s start with Shai himself. He’s not just carrying the scoring load - he’s also helping to prop up these numbers.
Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 36.4% from three when a defender is within two to four feet. That’s impressive, especially considering how often he has the ball in his hands and the defensive pressure he draws.
Next up is Jalen Williams at 33.3% - solid, but not exactly lights-out.
Beyond those two, it gets murky. The Thunder’s role players - the ones who are supposed to capitalize on Shai’s gravity and punish defenses for collapsing - haven’t been hitting their marks.
Isaiah Joe, widely regarded as OKC’s best pure shooter, is only hitting 33.3% of his contested threes. That’s not terrible, but it’s not the kind of reliability you want from your top floor spacer. And the numbers dip even further from there.
Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Chet Holmgren are all shooting under 30% on contested threes. That’s a tough pill to swallow, especially when you consider how often these players are the recipients of kick-outs after Shai breaks down a defense.
Aaron Wiggins, a guard known more for his offensive spark, is hitting just 16.7% of his contested threes. That’s a number that simply can’t hold if OKC wants to be taken seriously in a playoff series.
What this all adds up to is a troubling trend: defenses are starting to load up on Gilgeous-Alexander, daring OKC’s supporting cast to beat them from deep - and too often, they’re coming up short. That’s a dangerous game to play, especially with teams like Denver and San Antonio lurking in the West, ready to exploit any weakness.
The Thunder have the talent, the coaching, and the identity to make a deep run. But if they don’t address this shooting issue - whether through internal development or external help - it could be the one thing that holds them back when the games really start to matter.
With the trade deadline just days away, all eyes are on GM Sam Presti. Does he stand pat and trust this young core to figure it out? Or does he look to bring in a knockdown shooter who can take some of the pressure off Shai and open up the floor?
One thing’s for sure: the Thunder can’t afford to get complacent. The West is heating up, and the margin for error is razor-thin. If OKC wants to turn this promising season into something special, they’ll need more than just a superstar - they’ll need their shooters to start delivering when it counts.