Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is headed into next season with a chance to do something few players ever touch: win a third straight MVP. The problem is that the road to that kind of history is steep, and for the Oklahoma City Thunder star, team success may end up deciding everything.
Oklahoma City has spent the past three seasons as the No. 1 seed in the West, and it also finished with the league’s top record in each of the last two years. That kind of dominance has gone hand in hand with Gilgeous-Alexander’s rise. He’s already stacked back-to-back MVPs, and another trophy would put him in rare company.
But the race is shaping up to be a brutal one. Recent history has made a third consecutive MVP a near-impossible climb, even for the game’s biggest names.
Gilgeous-Alexander is no exception. He’s in that elite tier, but the margin for error is going to be thin.
The early favorite is San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama, who is coming off his first NBA Finals appearance. He also has a clean storyline on his side after defeating Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. If he opens the year with big numbers and pushes San Antonio to the No. 1 seed in the West, that could leave Gilgeous-Alexander with almost no path to a third straight win.
That’s why the Thunder’s record may matter more than anything else. If Oklahoma City can claim the best mark in basketball again, Gilgeous-Alexander would have a real case to make, especially if the Thunder can separate themselves from San Antonio. Hitting the 65-win range could be the benchmark that keeps him squarely in the conversation.
The head-to-head matchup matters, too. Oklahoma City taking the season series from San Antonio would help, and Gilgeous-Alexander would also benefit from the kind of memorable moments that have fueled his recent MVP wins over Nikola Jokic.
So while the Thunder guard should be right in the middle of the race again, the ballots may come down to one thing: which team wins more.
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