Can the Thunder Handle Houston’s Relentless Rebounding? Plus, Why Reed Sheppard’s Shooting Could Swing the Game
Fresh off a dominant 21-point win over the Spurs, the Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t getting much time to celebrate. They’re heading straight into another Western Conference test - this time on the road against a Houston Rockets squad that’s built to punish teams on the glass and make you pay for every missed box-out.
With Isaiah Hartenstein ruled out and Luguentz Dort listed as questionable, OKC will need to dig deep to handle Houston’s physicality. On the other side, the Rockets are missing Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith, which affects their defensive versatility but doesn’t take away from their biggest strength: offensive rebounding.
Let’s break down the three matchups that could decide this one.
1. Thunder’s Defensive Rebounding: Can They Survive the Onslaught?
When you play the Rockets, you’re not just battling for buckets - you’re fighting for every inch on the glass. Houston’s offensive rebounding numbers are eye-popping.
They’re grabbing 41.2% of available offensive boards - not just best in the league, but comfortably so. The gap between them and the second-best team is about the same as the gap between second and ninth.
That’s dominance.
Clint Capela and Steven Adams are leading the charge, sitting first and second in the NBA in offensive rebounds per 75 possessions. Add in Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson, who also crack the top 50 in that stat, and it’s clear this is a group that thrives on second chances.
That’s a major problem for OKC without Hartenstein, who’s their most physical interior presence and best rebounder. His absence leaves a big void, and it’ll be up to Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams, and Branden Carlson to bring the fight down low.
This game could come down to how well that group boxes out and limits second-chance opportunities. Because if Houston starts piling up extra possessions, they’ll wear you down - and fast.
2. Amen Thompson vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: A Defensive Battle Worth Watching
Amen Thompson isn’t just a good defender - he’s a game-changer. At 6’7” with a 7-foot wingspan and elite athleticism, he’s tailor-made to guard elite perimeter scorers.
Last season, he earned a spot on the All-Defensive First Team, and it wasn’t just for show. He’s the kind of defender who can shift a gameplan.
And that’s exactly what Houston will ask of him tonight against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - the reigning MVP and the engine of everything OKC does offensively.
Here’s the kicker: Thompson has already proven he can make life tough for SGA. In 123 career possessions matched up against him, Thompson has held Gilgeous-Alexander to 22.6 points and 4.9 assists per 75 possessions on 61.5% true shooting. That may sound solid, but for SGA - who usually glides to 30 points on elite efficiency - that’s a clear win for the defense.
If Thompson can keep Shai in check again, and also disrupt OKC’s secondary creators like Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams, Houston’s odds of pulling off the win go way up.
3. Reed Sheppard: Houston’s X-Factor From Deep
The Rockets don’t hide who they are - a physical, defense-first team that leans on rebounding and paint touches. But that identity comes with a tradeoff: they often have multiple non-shooters on the floor. That’s where Reed Sheppard becomes critical.
Sheppard, the former No. 3 overall pick, is shooting 40.4% from three this season on over six attempts per game. That kind of spacing is essential for a team like Houston, because it prevents defenses from collapsing the paint and daring them to shoot. His off-ball movement and catch-and-shoot ability stretch the floor in a way no one else on this roster really does.
But recently, Sheppard’s production has dipped - he’s scored under 10 points in four of his last six games. That won’t cut it against a team like OKC, especially with defenders like Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Ajay Mitchell potentially rotating onto him. Those are three high-level perimeter defenders who can chase, contest, and make life miserable for shooters.
If Sheppard can find his rhythm and knock down shots, it forces OKC to stay honest defensively. But if he struggles again, the Thunder can load up on the interior and take their chances with Houston’s other perimeter options.
Bottom Line
This one’s going to be a battle of contrasting styles. The Thunder want to play with pace, move the ball, and let Shai cook. The Rockets want to grind you down, dominate the glass, and make every possession a war.
Without Hartenstein, OKC’s going to need all hands on deck to survive the rebounding storm. And if Amen Thompson can once again frustrate Gilgeous-Alexander, Houston’s got a real shot to take this one - especially if Reed Sheppard finds his stroke from deep.
It’s a classic Western Conference clash with playoff implications - and it’s got all the ingredients for a gritty, high-stakes showdown.