Can the Thunder Hold the Paint Without Their Bigs? Key Matchups vs. Raptors That Could Decide the Game
The Thunder are back at home, but they’re not back at full strength. With Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, and Alex Caruso all still sidelined - and Aaron Wiggins listed as questionable - Oklahoma City is walking into this matchup against the Raptors with a thinner rotation and some big questions to answer. Chief among them: Can they control the paint and rebound well enough to keep Toronto in check?
Let’s break down the three biggest matchups that could swing this one.
1. Thunder’s Interior Defense & Rebounding: Can They Survive the Non-Holmgren Minutes?
This one’s going to be a battle at the rim - and Toronto brings the fight. The Raptors don’t live or die by the three-point shot.
In fact, they rank near the bottom of the league in both three-point attempt rate (24th) and percentage (26th). Instead, they do their damage inside, with nearly half of their points (46.2%) coming in the paint - the fifth-highest mark in the NBA.
That puts a massive spotlight on Oklahoma City’s interior defense. And when Chet Holmgren is on the floor, they’ve got a difference-maker. Holmgren leads the league in rim points saved per 75 possessions (minimum 500 minutes), per Basketball Index - a stat that backs up what the eye test already tells us: he’s a disruptive force around the basket.
But here’s the issue - when Holmgren sits, things get dicey. Jaylin Williams and Branden Carlson haven’t consistently held their ground as interior defenders, and with Hartenstein still out, the Thunder are short on true rim protectors. That drop-off was glaring in the loss to Indiana, where non-Holmgren minutes opened the door for the Pacers to take control.
Add in Toronto’s strength on the offensive glass - they rank 12th in offensive rebound percentage - and it’s clear that boxing out and limiting second-chance points will be critical. Since Hartenstein went down, the Thunder have struggled mightily on the boards. That trend can’t continue if they want to avoid another letdown.
Bottom line: This game could hinge on how well OKC defends the paint and finishes possessions with rebounds - especially when Holmgren is catching his breath on the bench.
2. Transition Defense: Who Can Win the Fast-Break Chess Match?
Here’s where things get interesting. Despite playing at a slower pace (bottom third in the league), Toronto ranks fourth in transition points per game. They don’t run often - but when they do, they make it count.
Oklahoma City will look to do the same, especially during stretches when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor. Taking advantage of early offense opportunities will be key to keeping the scoreboard moving without their All-NBA guard orchestrating every possession.
But don’t expect a track meet. These are two of the stingiest transition defenses in the league.
The Thunder allow the fewest transition points per game, and the Raptors are right behind them at second-fewest. Both teams are elite at getting back, building a wall, and forcing opponents to beat them in the halfcourt.
So what gives? It might come down to who blinks first.
One team finding success in transition - even in short bursts - could swing the momentum. Toronto’s offensive rebounding is the wild card here.
If they grab enough second-chance opportunities, they’ll slow the game down and get their defense set. But if OKC can secure the board and push the pace off missed put-backs, they’ll have chances to strike before Toronto can organize.
This is a battle of discipline and execution - and one or two fast-break runs could tilt the outcome.
3. The Search for a Third Scorer: Who Steps Up Behind Shai and Chet?
In the loss to Indiana, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren both brought their A-game - and it still wasn’t enough. That’s the reality of life in the NBA: two stars can carry you far, but they can’t do it alone. Someone else has to step up.
The Thunder need a third scorer to emerge, ideally someone who can give them close to 20 points. Isaiah Joe is a prime candidate.
He’s a proven shooter who can catch fire from deep, and Toronto’s defense has shown vulnerability to the three-point line. If Joe gets clean looks, he can make them pay.
If Aaron Wiggins is able to suit up, he’s another name to watch. His ability to create his own shot and knock down outside jumpers could provide the offensive spark OKC needs.
And don’t sleep on Kenrich Williams. The veteran forward has a knack for timely scoring, especially when defenses shift their focus to the stars.
This isn’t about someone having a career night - it’s about consistency and stepping into a bigger role. The Thunder need that third option to relieve pressure on their top two and keep the offense from stalling when the game tightens up.
Final Word
The Thunder have a winnable game on their hands, but it’s going to take more than just star power. Winning the paint battle without Hartenstein, staying disciplined in transition, and finding a reliable third scorer - those are the keys.
If OKC can hold its own in those areas, they’ve got a great shot to bounce back. If not, Toronto’s physicality and paint presence could make this a long night in Oklahoma City.