The Oklahoma City Thunder are riding high on a five-game win streak, fresh off back-to-back victories over top-tier Western Conference opponents. Next up?
A rematch with the Miami Heat - a team they beat by 12 just days ago. But don’t expect this one to be a carbon copy.
Miami’s looking to bounce back, and both teams are dealing with injuries that could shift the matchup dynamics.
Let’s break down three key areas that could decide the outcome of this rematch.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Still Unstoppable?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn’t just score 29 points in the last meeting - he dictated the game. Efficient shooting (10-of-19 from the field), eight assists, and a command of pace that left Miami’s defense scrambling.
That was with Davion Mitchell - one of Miami’s best on-ball defenders - logging 31 minutes. Now, Mitchell is out.
And that’s a problem.
The Heat are short on perimeter stoppers. Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, and Kasparas Jakucionis simply don’t have the defensive chops to contain Gilgeous-Alexander one-on-one.
Oklahoma City knows it, too. They’re more than willing to hunt mismatches and let their MVP go to work.
If SGA gets rolling early, Miami’s defense could be in for a long night. The key for the Heat will be forcing him into tough looks, throwing timely doubles, and rotating with discipline. Otherwise, Gilgeous-Alexander could be teeing up another highlight reel performance - and another Thunder win.
2. Andrew Wiggins: Miami’s X-Factor from Deep
Want to beat the Thunder’s defense? You’ve got to hit threes.
Opponents take 44.1% of their shots from beyond the arc against Oklahoma City - the sixth-highest rate in the league. That’s by design.
The Thunder prioritize protecting the paint and dare role players to beat them from distance.
Enter Andrew Wiggins.
In the last matchup, Wiggins torched OKC for 23 points, going 7-of-10 from three. He thrives in this kind of setup - spacing the floor, catching in rhythm, and punishing defenders who sag off.
And this isn’t a one-off. Wiggins has averaged 18 points on 41.7% shooting from deep over his last 15 games against the Thunder.
He’s got a track record of making Oklahoma City pay.
If Miami wants to keep pace offensively, they’ll need Wiggins to stay hot. The looks will be there - it’s just a matter of converting them.
3. Thunder’s Transition Defense vs. Miami’s Pace
Miami plays fast - fastest in the league, in fact. They lead the NBA in pace and rank fifth in percentage of points coming from the fast break.
It’s a huge part of their offensive identity. But Oklahoma City knows how to take the air out of the ball.
In their last meeting, the Thunder held the Heat to just eight fast break points. That’s a massive win for OKC’s transition defense and a big reason why Miami was held to 112 points overall. If the Thunder can replicate that effort - getting back quickly, cutting off passing lanes, and forcing Miami into half-court sets - they’ll be in control.
The Heat need to run to thrive. The Thunder need to slow it down to win. Whichever team dictates tempo could swing this game.
With injuries on both sides - Isaiah Hartenstein still out for OKC, and Miami missing Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Davion Mitchell, with Herro and Jovic questionable - depth and adaptability will be tested. But at the core, this game comes down to execution: Can Shai continue to dominate?
Will Wiggins stretch the floor again? And can the Thunder keep Miami from turning this into a track meet?
We’ll find out soon enough. But if recent form is any indication, Oklahoma City’s got the tools - and the momentum - to keep rolling.