The Thunder’s biggest lineup decision may not come down to Cason Wallace versus Ajay Mitchell at all. It may come down to Jalen Williams.
Mark Daigneault still has to sort out who slides into the starting five to replace Lu Dort, and Wallace and Mitchell are the two obvious options. Wallace has long looked like the natural heir, having served as Dort’s direct understudy in Oklahoma City. Mitchell, though, made a strong case last season that he belongs in that spot too.
When Mitchell started for OKC, he gave the club real production: 14.9 points, 3.8 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 41.7 percent from deep. The Thunder also went 22-1 in the regular season and playoffs with him in the starting lineup. No matter which way Daigneault leans, the team would be putting a high-level player into the two spot.
But the real swing factor is Williams and where he stands physically after an injury-riddled 2025-26 season.
When he’s right, Williams is one of the league’s best two-way players. His All-Star, All-NBA and All-Defensive honors back that up, and so does the way he performed as the second option behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during the run to the 2025 championship.
Last season showed how much the Thunder missed him. His absences and the limited version of himself after offseason wrist surgery exposed the one thing OKC didn’t have enough of: high-end scoring punch.
That opened the door for Mitchell to take on a much bigger role, and for long stretches he functioned as the team’s unofficial No. 2.
If Williams comes back fully healthy, though, Oklahoma City may not need another offense-first starter in that group. The Thunder could decide that adding more shot creation beside Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander is more than they need, especially if Williams looks like the player who averaged 21.6 points and 5.1 assists while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from 3 just two seasons ago.
That would push the Thunder toward a more familiar formula, with Wallace’s All-Defensive value making him a clean fit in the starting backcourt.
If Williams is still not all the way back, the math changes. Mitchell’s ability to create offense would become even more important until Williams is ready to handle his usual load again.
So for all the talk about Wallace and Mitchell, the decision likely hinges on one thing: how healthy Jalen Williams is when the season starts.
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