Victor Wembanyama has already turned one matchup into a front-office problem for Oklahoma City.
In the Thunder’s seven-game Western Conference Finals battle with San Antonio, Wembanyama was the clear force on the floor. He averaged 22.4 points, 11.8 rebounds and 3.4 blocks while repeatedly putting Oklahoma City in tough spots. The Spurs won the series 4-3, and the Thunder came out of it with more than just a playoff loss to digest.
Chet Holmgren’s numbers against Wembanyama told the story. He averaged only 10.7 points in the series and shot 42.1 percent from the field.
Game 7 was the sharpest example of the issue: Holmgren finished with 4 points on 1-of-7 shooting in 33 minutes, while Wembanyama went for 26 points and 13 rebounds. Oklahoma City leaned on Isaiah Hartenstein to handle that physical assignment.
Now the basketball problem is bleeding into the salary sheet.
Holmgren’s five-year rookie maximum extension is worth $240.7 million, with his salary set to begin at $41.5 million in 2026-27 and climb to $54.8 million by 2030-31. Along with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, the Thunder’s big three will cost roughly $123.8 million combined, and that number is already squeezing the roster. The core cost will eventually reach $185.2 million.
According to Zach Harper of The Athletic, the second apron is already pressing down on Oklahoma City. Harper wrote: "The second apron is rearing its ugly head with OKC in real time and will continue to do so as long as the Thunder keep that big three together. They might have to make a big-time decision soon."
General manager Sam Presti has already started making painful moves to stay clear of the penalties. He traded Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe this offseason, and Presti specifically described losing Dort as a financial decision. Harper noted that Holmgren could be the next player caught in that squeeze if the matchup problems continue to show up in the biggest moments: "If Holmgren continues to struggle against Victor Wembanyama when it matters most, then maybe that decision becomes easier."
That doesn’t mean Oklahoma City is shopping Holmgren now. But the rules around the second apron leave little room to breathe.
Teams above it lose key roster-building tools, including the ability to combine salaries in trades and access the mid-level exception. That makes it far harder to build out depth around expensive stars, a reality other contenders such as Boston and Denver have already faced.
Holmgren still gave Oklahoma City plenty to believe in during the regular season. He made All-Defensive First Team and averaged 17.1 points and 8.5 rebounds, while shooting 37.1 percent from three. Across eight career meetings with Wembanyama, Holmgren has averaged 13.8 points, compared with Wembanyama’s 17.0.
The Thunder remain committed to Holmgren’s growth. Still, this is the matchup that matters most, and it showed the franchise exactly where the pressure point is. If Holmgren can’t solve Wembanyama in the postseason, Oklahoma City’s biggest contract could become its biggest complication.
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