Chet Holmgren’s next step may arrive sooner than anyone wants to admit.
The Oklahoma City Thunder big man is carrying the kind of offseason noise that tends to follow a bad playoff series, and his rough showing against the Spurs in the conference finals is still hanging over him. Holmgren finished that matchup averaging 10.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks in 29.9 minutes per game, while Victor Wembanyama got the better of him. That was enough to fuel a full summer of criticism.
But the Thunder don’t have to wait for the playoffs to see whether Holmgren answers it.
The pattern the league has seen before is simple enough: elite players take a postseason hit, then come back sharper. Jalen Brunson did it after a breakout third season in Dallas, when a seven-game playoff series exposed him and his minutes dipped as the series went on. He made sure it never happened again, exploded in year four, and ultimately outplayed the maximum contract the Mavericks could offer before moving on to the Knicks and winning a title.
Jayson Tatum followed a similar path. His playoff struggles came in year two, and the next season he climbed to third-team All-NBA.
One series, even a bad one, doesn’t lock in a player’s ceiling. It just gives him a target.
That’s the lane Holmgren is in now.
At 24, he has already been part of an Oklahoma City rise that started from his first NBA game. The Thunder have won 75.9 percent of their regular-season games with Holmgren available, and during his first three seasons the team has made the playoffs three times, reached two conference finals, won seven playoff series, and captured a championship.
The defensive reputation is already there. Holmgren is viewed as the second-best defender in the world behind Wembanyama.
The offensive piece is what’s next, and the expectation is that his scoring and efficiency keep moving up. Holmgren has also made it clear, through the work he knows is required, that nothing is guaranteed once the biggest games arrive.
That means more shooting, and it means adding counters for Wembanyama. The Spurs star is not going anywhere, and this matchup is set up to keep living at the center of the league conversation for years. Holmgren is not going to let Wembanyama own it without a fight.
By the time the playoffs come around, the conversation around Holmgren could look very different. The criticism from that conference finals series may already feel distant if his jumper tightens up, his offensive bag expands, and his defensive influence stays as strong as ever. The chatter could even shift toward whether he has passed Wembanyama in the Defensive Player of the Year race or moved into first- or second-team All-NBA territory.
The Thunder understand all of that. Head coach Mark Daigneault immediately brushed aside the concern and stood up for Holmgren, and there was never any serious talk of Oklahoma City moving off him, even with the max contract kicking in. The franchise knows what it has.
And if history is any guide, the response to one playoff setback will come fast. Brunson did it.
Tatum did it. Holmgren is expected to do the same, and the Thunder believe the noise will be gone long before the next postseason begins.
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Spain did not come away with the result it wanted against Greece, but Maras energy was one of the brighter takeaways from the night. The Thunder are still approaching his outlook with the kind of caution that usually comes with a first-year player, yet performances like this are why there remains some optimism about how he could fit when Oklahoma City gets back to work. [Read more 🡒]
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Thunder Face One Chet Holmgren Dilemma They Can't Ignore
The Thunder spent the offseason making their center room deeper and more complicated, a sign of how much the organization values having options around Chet Holmgren. Isaiah Hartenstein is back, Aday Mara arrived in the draft, and Thomas Sorber is entering the mix after a lost year, giving Oklahoma City a group that looks built as much for the future as for the present.
Mark Daigneault now has to sort out how those minutes get divided without shortchanging development or sacrificing the kind of stability a contender wants from the middle of the floor. Holmgrens versatility makes him the swing piece in all of it, and the Thunder are clearly preparing to rotate through several looks while figuring out which combinations can survive the regular season and which ones make the most sense long term. [Read more 🡒]