Chet Holmgren went into last season with real Defensive Player of the Year momentum. For a long stretch, the Thunder big man sat as the favorite. Then Victor Wembanyama made a late charge, and the Spurs star ended up running away with the award.
Now Holmgren is back in the conversation for 2026-27, but the gap looks even wider. FanDuel still lists him with the second-best odds, yet those numbers trail Wembanyama by a long way.
That’s partly because Wemby keeps doing Wemby things on defense. It’s also because Oklahoma City has made Holmgren’s path to the trophy a lot steeper.
Last season, Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein formed a strong rim-protecting tandem. Together, they helped push OKC to a top-two finish in points in the paint allowed per game. Hartenstein mattered plenty in that setup, but Holmgren was the one who drew the loudest attention, especially with nearly two blocks per game backing up his reputation as an elite shot blocker.
Even so, the postseason exposed some rough edges. Against the Spurs, Holmgren was repeatedly knocked around by players of all sizes, and the bully-ball approach gave him trouble.
That postseason showing appears to have had a direct impact on Oklahoma City’s thinking. The Thunder answered by taking 7-foot-3 Aday Mara in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Mara isn’t the only new body in that crowded frontcourt mix. Thomas Sorber, a first-round pick in the 2025 draft, is also in the fold, and Jaylin Williams remains part of the picture as well.
Add in Hartenstein, and Oklahoma City suddenly has real depth at center. That makes it hard to imagine Holmgren spending much time there unless the Thunder go small.
That’s the big twist in Holmgren’s role. Last season, he bounced between center and forward.
This year, the roster points much more clearly toward power forward. With Hartenstein, Mara, Sorber and Williams all competing for minutes, Holmgren may be the one moved out of the center logjam rather than into it.
That shift matters for his award case. Holmgren’s blocks per game have already dipped in each of his first three seasons, and the changing role only makes it harder for him to put up the kind of rim numbers that win this race. Hartenstein’s arrival after Holmgren’s injury-hit redshirt rookie year started that trend, and the 2025-26 playoffs may have pushed it further.
For now, the outlook is simple: Holmgren is still in the mix, but Wembanyama looks like the overwhelming favorite. At the moment, it feels less like a head-to-head battle and more like Victor against everybody else.
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Even with the lost time, the expectation inside OKC remains the same: Williams is a cornerstone piece, and the Thunder are counting on him to get back to the form that brought All-NBA, All-Star and All-Defense recognition. If he does, it changes the ceiling for a team that already knows what a healthy, high-level Williams can mean in a championship chase, especially with 2026-27 circled as the next big window. [Read more 🡒]