Chet Holmgren is shaping up to be one of the biggest swing pieces in Oklahoma City’s next title push, even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still sitting at the center of everything the Thunder do.
That’s the basic thread running through Holmgren’s 2026-27 projections: his value is expected to come more from what he does on the defensive end than from any huge jump in scoring. Basketball-Reference projects him at 21.0 points, 14.0 field goal attempts, a .547 field-goal percentage, .373 from three, .791 at the line, 2.4 assists, 10.7 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 2.5 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.
If those numbers are scaled to the 28.9 minutes Mark Daigneault has given him, the Thunder should see a player who stretches the floor more cleanly and keeps growing into a real problem for opposing defenses. A 37.3% three-point shooter at center gives Oklahoma City a lot to work with. Holmgren becomes a real threat as a trailer in Spain Pick-and-Roll actions, a useful screener in Pick-and-Pop situations, and a big who can stay on the perimeter and pull defenders out of shape.
The passing side matters too. Holmgren is projected to move from 1.7 assists to 1.9, with a path back to his career-high 2.4 if things break right. That would matter even more with Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort gone, because every bit of extra creation becomes more valuable for this roster.
Defensively, the expectations are even louder. Holmgren is projected to climb back to 2.0 blocks per game, which would put him closer to Victor Wembanyama, though still well behind the Spurs star’s 3.1 blocks during his unanimous NBA DPOY run last season. Holmgren is also expected to hold steady at 0.6 steals, another small but useful piece of what Oklahoma City needs from him.
There is one area where the projection dips: rebounding. Holmgren is forecast to slide from 8.9 boards to 8.6. That would put a little more pressure on Isaiah Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams and Jalen Williams to help on the glass, especially after the Thunder averaged just 44.1 rebounds per game last season, good for 12th in the NBA.
Offensively, the line is more modest. Holmgren is projected to go from a career-high 17.1 points to 16.9, while his shot attempts edge down from 11.3 to 11.2.
That matters because Oklahoma City has already lost about nine points from the departures of Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. The team did add Aday Mara, Bennett Stirtz and Otega Oweh, but those are young players who may need time.
The odd wrinkle is that Holmgren’s three-point percentage is projected to improve even as his overall field-goal percentage drops. That points to trouble finishing inside the arc, especially with more traffic in the paint and less shooting around him. Without Joe and Wiggins, that kind of dip makes sense.
So the Thunder’s Holmgren outlook comes down to fit as much as raw production. The scoring may stay steady rather than explode, but the defense is where he can tilt the entire season. If the projections hold, he remains the anchor Oklahoma City needs to chase another Larry O’Brien Trophy.
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Chet Holmgrens rough showing in the Western Conference Finals drew plenty of attention, and for good reason. He struggled to find his rhythm against San Antonio, shot poorly and spent much of the matchup being outplayed by Victor Wembanyama, which made him an easy place to point after the Oklahoma City Thunder came up short.
But the bigger issue for Oklahoma City was never just Holmgrens box score. The Thunder were dealing with major rotation losses in Jaylen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, and those absences left the roster thinner than it needed to be in the most demanding part of the series. Even with that handicap, Oklahoma City still dragged the matchup all the way to a Game 7, which says plenty about how close the Thunder were despite the circumstances. [Read more 🡒]
Thunder Fans Have A Sneaky Reason To Watch Jalen Duren Free Agency
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Sacramento is the name to circle here because of where the Kings sit in the standings picture and how much room there still is for movement around them. Duren landing there would not be expected to dramatically alter their postseason outlook, but the Thunder have plenty of reason to keep an eye on the broader free-agent market, since a different destination could give one of Oklahoma Citys biggest rivals a meaningful boost. So even if this is not a Thunder move in the traditional sense, it is the kind of transaction that could shape the path ahead in ways that matter in Oklahoma City. [Read more 🡒]
SGAs MVP Buzz Is Slipping For A Reason Thunder Fans Will Love
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still trying to do something rare enough to reshape the MVP conversation before the season even tips: chase a third straight award after winning the last two. But the early national buzz is no longer pointing his way as strongly as it did a year ago, which says less about any drop in his game and more about how crowded the leagues top tier has become.
For Thunder fans, though, there is a familiar silver lining. Oklahoma City is again expected to win at a level that keeps the team in the leagues elite conversation, and this time the load around Gilgeous-Alexander should be spread more evenly across a deep group. With Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell and the rest of the supporting cast helping shoulder the burden, the MVP chase may get trickier for SGA, even if the Thunders bigger picture looks just as bright. [Read more 🡒]